It sucks that we lost out on what would’ve been an epic Brazil-Argentina match, but these semifinals are still going to be sick to watch. If there’s a soccer bar in your area, do yourself favor and go there to watch one of the games. I went to a bar in Houston last Friday that was packed with Columbia fans, and it was a sick experience…
As for picks, it will absolutely be Chile and Argentina in the finals, but the odds on both games are so steep that they’re not really worth gambling on. Instead, now is a good time to place a hefty futures bet and earn yourself an extra paycheck for the summer.
Put the money on Chile at +140. They’re the host nation, they have the deepest roster, and they’ve been dominating throughout the tournament. I know ESPN’s SPI is not a foolproof indicator by any means, but just look at this…
Chile gets almost twice the chance of winning as Argentina, but they are still the underdogs. I’ve never seen such a disparity between Vegas and these types of metrics before. How does that happen? The Messi-ah. He is so good. It’s like betting against Lebron; you can take a team that’s clearly better but this one player for the opponent is still going to give you worries at night. Still, Argentina’s been far from impressive throughout the tourney. They struggled throughout the entire group stage and were hanging by a thread during PKs against Columbia. They shouldn’t be favorites.
The biggest risk with Chile right now is their starting centerback, Gonzalo Jara, is suspended for the rest of the tourney after sticking his fingers up Cavani’s butt and then flopping from the retaliation to draw the Uruguayan a red card. This sucks for Chile because he was one of their better defenders, but they are supposed to have an adequate replacement in a reserve named Jorge Rojas who is a natural center defender. After Rojas, however, the team is spread very thin and cannot afford injuries or card trouble. That’s not enough to sway us from betting them, though, and they still have Sanchez and Vidal anchoring the attack. And they’re at home. They’re going to win. Profit off of them. (if you want to follow me in terms of units, put 20x your typical baseball bet)
While we’re at it, I might as well rattle off the baseball picks I like for tonight.
Red Sox (+110) at Blue Jays (-120), Over 8.5 runs (-120)
Twins (+147) at Reds (-167)
Rockies (+160) at Athletics (-175)
Dodgers (-158) at Diamondbacks (+143)
Brewers (-157) at Phillies (+142)