Deshaun Watson Dream Landing Spot – LA Chargers (Film and Metric Analysis)

Justin Herbert has already ascended to the bonafide elite tier of Deshaun Watson, both in Vegas MVP odds and in the eyes of the common fans.

He is exempt from Watson trade rumors…

Even in Houston, they think a Watson-Herbert swap is unfeasible.

Is this real life???

I say this as a fan of Watson and even more so as a hater of houston – this is a DREAM trade!

To put the true value into perspective, think of the mainstream frontrunners for Watson – the Miami Dolphins.

They’re supposed to unload a treasure chest of franchise altering draft picks that could potentially OP their roster.

And it still might be worth it!

But it would be way more worth it for the Chargers to just swap QBs, especially when there’s a chance when Watson alone improves the Chargers more than the Dolphins.

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Metrics – YAC and Air Yards

If we’re really gonna compare Justin Herbert to Deshaun Watson, then it’s fair to give his ‘record setting rookie season’ a little more scrutiny.

Out of 35 eligible QBs, Herbert ranks in the bottom quintile in YAC yards vs air yards.

Watson and the Dolphins starting QB? Not so much…

More advanced metrics back this up, such as average separation yards where Miami’s two top targeted receivers – DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki – are ranked at 2nd and 3rd worst in the entire league.

The rest of the skill position players, including running backs, are Day 3 draft picks plus rookie 3rd rd pick Lynn Bowden (who played QB in college and is currently learning WR).

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Only the Giants had more roster deficiencies on offense than the Dolphins last year.

It’s not a supporting cast that Watson fans should clamor to see him work with.

Chargers receivers didn’t do this…

And yet somehow the Chargers won much less.

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Metric – QB Winz

Both Dolphins QBs – Fitz and Tua – deserve accolades for dragging that trash roster to the brink of the playoffs.

We can’t guarantee the same happens with Fitz and Herbert…

(Note that the Dolphins defense, while great most of the season, had a Canes-like tendency to fall apart against elite QBs.)

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We can use the same methodology to conclude that two of Tua’s wins would’ve been definite losses under Herbert…

If Tua ever had a performance as poor as Herbert’s Pats-at-home shutout debacle, he would be untradable.

At the very least, do you think Deshaun Watson could improve upon these throws and score more than zero points?

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And then we have the most interesting case study of the season. A head-to-head matchup from Week 10.

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MIA 29 – LAC 21
H2H QB Analysis

I like Herbert. He’s an intriguing talent and it’s not fun to bash him.

But a deeper dive of this game makes it really hard to fathom how he’s exempt from Watson rumors.

It makes no sense.

Most people (understandably) didn’t watch this game. Luckily for them, I’ve cut it up in a way to efficiently and comprehensively see what’s up.

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Throwing Metrics Breakdown

If screens and dump offs are your jam, then watching a full game of Justin Herbert is football porn…

The majority of Herbert’s throws were to wide open targets, half were short passes, and he had no tight window accuracy.

For Tua, it was the opposite in each regard.

A classic example of how basic passing stats don’t correlate strongly with QB Winz (and that’s without factoring for garbage time yards)

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Film – Throws Watson Makes

Here is a sample of seven Herbert throws that don’t stand up to the caliber of Deshaun Watson…

Wide open misses, a brutal interception, hesitation, slow deliveries.

Spraying the ball around like that on 20% of your passing attempts is how games get lost. Tua would be excruciated for those throws.

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Fortunately for the Dolphins, he never threw that poorly and that is how a tank-job offensive roster nearly made the playoffs.

Out of all ten incompletions that day, are any of them as bad as those any of those Herbert throws? I really don’t think so…

Watson definitely improves on some of those passes, but a better receiver improves just as many.

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From looking at just the bad throws so far, the Chargers need Watson more than the Dolphins.

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Film – Long Throws

Both QBs had the same number of 10+ yard completions at eight a piece.

However, to save time I omitted all the easy screen and dump off throws.

Here are all the passes that had to travel 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage before hitting a receiver…

No doubt – those two garbage time throws must’ve been pretty sweet on Red Zone, especially for all the over 48.5 bettors.

That one early play to a wide open Hunter Henry was pretty good too.

The rest of the film, oddly enough, was money throw after money throw by Tua.

Precision perfect accuracy on every pass he throws.

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One QB looks far superior here and it’s not the one getting Watson comps.

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Film – Scrambling and Intangibles

Finally, we have a cutup of all scrambles plus one bonus intangible play from that Sunday.

It’s safe to say that Watson’s elite mobility would improve both the Chargers and Dolphins equally.

Tua has the edge in quickness and elusiveness (despite coming off major hip surgery), while Herbert has the size advantage.

The bonus intangible play was Tua needing to save a defensive touchdown after the second botched snap of a single drive.

(If you remember from the completions video, he turned the first botched snap into a 3rd and long conversion).

It’s not just skill position players that need upgrading on that offense.

Do we really want to see Watson put up with more of this?

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Conclusion – Dream Trade for Everyone

The evidence is overwhelming.

As a fan of Watson, a huge hater of Houston, and a fair-weather Miami fan that wants to see them actually contend for Super Bowls instead of just making the playoffs every year…

This is obviously a DREAM trade for me.

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Everyone else, who I assume falls into that first ‘fans of Watson’ bucket, should root for this trade just as hard as me.

It’s the one team he could join with both ready-made weapons and an ability to keep building without sacrificing a crippling amount of draft capital.

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Chargers fans should especially cheer for this.

Their offense would be absolute fireworks, and their defense will be fine if Bosa’s healthy and that new coach is half the guru people say.

They’d contend right away and they’d also get a check on Mahomes in the AFC West (while keeping Watson from going to Vegas or Denver).

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And finally, NFL owners should be CLAMORING to make this trade happen.

They’ve been trying to conquer LA for decades, and now that elusive answer is right at their fingertips!

Spanos has the coup of the century in his grasp and he needs to act.

Get it done.

Deshaun Watson Dream Landing Spot – LA Chargers (Film and Metric Analysis)

Super Bowl 55 Was an All-Time Put-Up Job (Film and Metric Analysis)

Every regular season of my lifetime has featured outrage over ‘existential penalty crises’, yet nothing but crickets when this happens in a Super Bowl? Astounding.

Contrary to popular belief, the Chiefs title defense looked very promising for awhile.

Defense started with a 3-and-out and a 4-and-out, including a sack. Not bad!

Offense sputtered to only a three point lead but no biggie because they always start playoff games slowly.

Then a record was set that nobody is talking about…

90 Chiefs penalty yards in the second quarter – a Super Bowl record and the most by any team in any quarter since Week 1 of 2018.

It also had them in 20th place already for most penalties for any team in any game all season.

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Film Analysis

These are the types of calls that cause a team to double their season average for penalty yards (48.7) in just one quarter.

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It was triple the average of playoff penalty yards per team (30.8).

Mostly because all the other playoff games were called more like this…

First stalled series of the game. Either the most blatant hold we’ve seen so far or a 15 yard face mask.

Third and four after the goal line stand. Huge turn in the game – 9.6% win probability swing.

Didn’t affect the game much but two holds in one gif… unreal!

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Metric Analysis

The overturned Honey Badger pick alone should’ve been enough to stir up a storm, but the rest of the calls were undoubtedly impactful as well…

If you look at the top ten most impactful plays for the Bucs offense, five of them were penalties.

Four consecutive Bucs drives ignited by penalties – three for TDs and one for a goal line stand that stalled the next Chiefs drive (with the help of that Kelce non-call).

The metrics are clear. Penalties ended this game by halftime.

Too big a deficit and too little time to activate a run game, so pass rushers were teed off against backup blockers with extra bodies flooding the secondary.

The Chiefs were tactically fucked.

Game over. Lombardi to the Tampa Bay Zebrucs.

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‘All Star Crews’

Rick Gosselin was the only reporter man enough to call this out and that’s why he’s the bro king we don’t deserve.

He says the flags were a result of a season long grading process to select an ‘all star crew’ led by Carl Cheffers.

Coincidentally, Carl Cheffers has thrown more flags against the Chiefs by one full standard deviation (I calculated) compared to the rest of his games since the time Travis Kelce said “he shouldn’t even work at fucking foot locker”.

However, the Super Bowl ‘all star crew’ is not determined solely by season long grades – they are just one factor along with ‘intangibles’ to group officials into three different tiers.  Then, the league picks refs from tier 1 as they please.

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In 2018, the league took an unprecedented step of using an ‘all star crew’ for Monday Night Football. I wrote back then that it was the only other time I unequivocally believed the NFL tampered with a game.

Originally scheduled for Mexico City, the league switched that Chiefs-Rams mega matchup to ‘neutral site’ LA Coliseum and swapped out the refs for a hand-picked ‘all star crew’.

They threw nine flags on KC in the first quarter alone and let the Rams false start every single play. It was an obvious put-up job.

Especially under the circumstances of LA’s stadium PSL push…

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Unprecedented Times for Tampering

The SoFi stadium PSLs were chump change compared to what the NFL faced this year – a 2-3 billion dollar shortfall.

If we had to rank all of the Super Bowls in order of most to least likely to be tampered with, this year wins by a landslide.

Imagine you take a time machine to 2019 to tell your past self to hammer Brady and Bucs futures. Explain how the world got fucked and cash was getting crunched and watch your past mind get blown away.

Would 2019 you, knowing everything you know about NFL owners, believe that this situation was heavily prone to tampering? Absolutely.

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And if you’re an NFL owner, which result brings more money to stop the bleeding?

  1. A repeat champion from a flyover market that’s been fully saturated, or
  2. A franchise from an affluent, fair weather fan market with a QB that has the east coast wrapped around his finger

The answer is obvious, especially when you consider the location of the Super Bowl and the stakeholders involved from my great state of Florida…

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The Glazer Family

Everyone overseas knows their soccer team’s matches have been rigged since the covid restart…

The last time the Glazers watched their NFL team in the Super Bowl, they won a game that was definitely thrown by the other side to spite Al Davis.

Malcolm Glazer was never a coward and his family follows in his footsteps well.  They’re not afraid to be conduits of chicanery, especially in their home stadium.

(Side note: this interview a couple weeks ago is awesome)

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God Governor Ron DeSantis

This guy is a god governor. Not merely good – god. I imagine this conversation took place word for word recently…

DeSantis: Hey Commissioner, my state has three NFL franchises that allowed fans in their stadiums all season long.  You’re also welcome for our Super Bowl host site in what is by far the most accessible state in the country for commerce.

Goodell: You’re right. The owners are very thankful for that much needed boost in revenue that they all share.

DeSantis: So if one of our teams makes the Super Bowl, I expect a little favor in return for the huge favors we’ve been giving the league.

Goodell: You’re right sir! I’ll have a special ‘all star crew’ standing by for our favorite state.

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Tom Brady

Once again lifting a trophy earned under dubious circumstances. The true master of the dark arts.

At this point, you just have to respect it as a privilege for a goat. He earned it. Hat tip to the goat…

And hat tip to the NFL as well for playing America like fools. I’m honestly impressed.

Super Bowl 55 Was an All-Time Put-Up Job (Film and Metric Analysis)

Sixto Clock Start to Save the Marlins Season

The Marlins have a Sixto Clock start this afternoon to save the season. The last time Sixto took the mound was on Friday when he and Yu Darvish put on an epic display of pitching porn…

After battling through brutal weather conditions (45 degrees Fahrenheit – what the fuck) to blank the Cubs 2-0 and advance to the NLDS, they celebrated with cigars on Wrigley Field while mocking that dirtbag Phillies analyst who called them bottom feeders.

In all of my time with the Marlins (been a lifelong fan since January), this is by far my proudest moment. What an incredible achievement for a rebuild year, and this squad is just getting started!

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Ideally, the good times don’t end at Wrigley. We still have an undefeated all-time postseason series streak to protect, but prospects are looking grim with an 0-2 hole vs Atlanta.

We’ve had our chances, but unfortunately Mattingly has made a couple crucial mistakes.

The first was on Tuesday when he left Sandy out to dry after dealing heroically through the league’s best offense. His pitch count was at 91 and he went back out in the 7th with a one run lead.

Sandy threw four pitches. Here’s two of them…

Instead of giving Yimi Garcia clean bases, our best reliever came in with a two-on jam and the heart of the order up. The lead did not hold.

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Unfortunately, it’s an all too familiar mistake for Mattingly. Clayton Kershaw’s playoff pedigree took a turn to the worst because of similar mismanagement in the 2014 NLDS, when twice he had gems that fell apart in the 7th inning. Both times Mattingly had leads, and both times they fell apart with a fatigued pitcher.

When a game is there to win, unload the bullpen!

Mattingly seemed to have learned his lesson against the Cubs when he pulled Sixto after five shutout innings just to be safe. Why didn’t he do it again to steal game 1?

Hopefully it’s the last time he makes this mistake and he doesn’t derail the dynasty.

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The second Mattingly mistake is a bit ticky tacky but still a crucial moment in game 2…

Rough break, but in hindsight you have to pull out all the stops to go for the rally.

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Matt Joyce was more at fault for the loss. He had a huge AB in the top of the 6th and this says it all…

Mother fucker man.

He’s benched for today and might’ve played his last game for the Marlins. Sad.

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One last note before turning my eyes to Sixto is that Acuna is a little bitch and I’ve lost all respect I had for him this season. He will not give that stupid Urena pitch a fucking rest.

Every single time he gets hit, he tries to start a fight. Three Marlins players have been HBP by the Braves more over the last two seasons than Acuna has by us, and none of those three players crowd the plate like Acuna does. Give it a god damn rest already.

This slide is unacceptable and has no place in baseball in 2020. Truly unbelievable, but I bet you won’t see Rojas spending the next two seasons whining and moaning about it.

Fuck Atlanta. Go Fish. 

Sixto Clock Start to Save the Marlins Season

All Aboard the Twins Train

After the horrendous Rangers opening weekend, I needed another AL pet team to ride for this once-in-a-lifetime 60 game season gambling opportunity. Without question, my chase bets went to the Twins.

  • 2 units to win the division at -122 (cha ching!)
  • 1 unit to win the AL at +5500
  • 1 unit to win the WS at +1250

Right now, I’m feeling pretty damn good with the 3 seed and home set against the trash ass disastros. What a time to be alive! Not only is my pet team in a good bracket spot, but they get a warmup round against my most hated sports team of all time. Sick.

Why did I bet the Twins? Aww thanks for asking. I’m surprised you cared!

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First and foremost, they have Nelson Cruz and my heart wants him to get a ring so badly. It’s terrible what happened in St Louis nine years ago, and it’s terrible that it happened to him. We don’t get there without Cruz. Period. He was the MVP of the playoffs.

He hit SIX home runs in the ALCS, with two walkoff grand slams! His defense was important too as that cannon saved us Game 4…

He would’ve had the title-winning home run if Ron Washington had just put Endy Chavez in the game instead of proclaiming the 9th inning “up to god’s hands now” (god damnit), or if that scumbag Simon Crowell didn’t exist.

Alas, enough of that, I’m cheering for Cruz to get his rings with the Twins.

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The other reason I bet the Twins is that I’m a Jon Daniels apologist and Twins GM Thad Levine is a Jon Daniels protege. That dude is smart as shit and I’ll buy into any team he’s running.

They have an offense that MASHES homers. They have a prototype 5 tool center fielder. They have a talented and fairly deep, albeit inconsistent, bullpen. And they have the second best starting pitcher ERA in the AL (behind only Cleveland’s death rotation).

The best of those pitchers is Kenta Maeda, who Levine traded for in the offseason in what was easily the shrewdest baseball move of the past year. Maeda killed it all season and will finish second in Cy Young voting.

He’s starting this afternoon in a leadoff matinee game (god is great) against that crybaby fuck head Zack Greinke. Twins -160. Lock it down.

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I also want to recap how the Twins got to this spot because man oh man was it a wild ride…

They started out on a HOT 10-2 run (one of the losses was a Bieber gem). They had a +30 run differential that was first in the AL by a mile – the next closest at the time was Oakland at +13 – and they led the AL Central by 3 games.

They were scoring early and often, with first inning runs in half of their games (astounding). Out of 108 total innings played, they only trailed after 19 of them.

If you take out the two losses, they were leading after 76/90 innings (84%) and they were tied or leading after 85/90 innings (94%). Truly dominant stuff!

Then the droop came. A 10-14 run against some baaad competition – 21 games against the Royals, Tigers, Brewers, and Pirates. Yeeesh. They entered September trailing the White Sox by 2.5 games.

But then they stormed back with another 10-2 run! It seemed all they needed was better competition to get motivated because they won 2/3 vs the Sox and got a clutch series sweep vs Cleveland.

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On September 14, they entered a huge four game mega series at the Sox to decide the division. And they… kind of fucked it all up. They lost games 1 and 2, won game 3, and then were winning most of game 4 until a couple of meltdowns.

The first came from Josh Donaldson right after hitting the biggest home run of the season

Which shouldn’t have mattered, but the bullpen melted down next inning and the Twins couldn’t rally with a giant hole in their 2 spot. It appeared my money was gone…

But lo and behold, the Sox fucking CHOKED. They lost 8 out of 10 and completely fell apart! The Twins won the Central by one game and now it’s house money time baby!

Instead of traveling to Oakland for the first place A’s, we get those soft ass crybaby, lyin’, cheatin’, scoundrel disastros. 

God is great. And god did I love gambling that 60 game season. Indeed, what a time to be alive.

All Aboard the Twins Train

The Real Death Star Is the Dallas Cowboys Stadium

The Vegas Raiders are trying to brand their new stadium ‘The Death Star’ and I’m having none of that.

There is only one Death Star and it’s right outside of Dallas. There is only one Empire team and that’s America’s Team. Fuck this noise.

Everyone in Dallas has been calling our stadium the Death Star since day 1. The UnTicket explains the origin (and also is where this badass cover image came from).

Early in 2009, months before the stadium first opened, the Cowboys changed their flagship radio station from The Ticket (a legendary radio station) to The Fan (a trash radio station).

As part of the move, Jerry had to fire Ticket morning host George Dunham (co-host of the tweeter above) from his stadium PA job and replace him with a host on The Fan. It was bullshit because Dunham had been awesome at that job for years, and long before the Ticket had flagship rights as well.

Those morning show hosts found a way to exact revenge through the Death Star moniker, and it’s stuck ever since. It’s an awesome nickname that we should all be proud of.

Fuck you Jerry. We don’t have to call it Jerry World. Thanks for building a beautiful Death Star, Jerry.

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This must’ve seethed our owner more than I realized because Jerry is 100% behind this new Vegas branding. Mark Davis is a puppet owner of the new stadium, while Jerry is the real owner.

It was Jerry who made the move to Vegas happen, secured $650M in crucial financing from Bank of America, and is running all suite and sponsorship sales.

Jerry thinks that by having Mark Davis run with this Death Star schtick in Vegas, we might be forced to stop saying it back in Dallas. Again, I’m having none of that. Fuck off Jerry. Be a better emperor.

The Real Death Star Is the Dallas Cowboys Stadium

Sonny Scores Four to Massacre Southampton

Sunday was a beautiful morning for Spurs, and especially for Son…

Four goals. FOUR! Within just 26 minutes. What a game.

Sonny’s finishes were superb, but all four assists from Kane were a treat as well.

The past two seasons have been frustrating as hell whenever Son and Kane were on the field together. Both seemed to play better alone, but both are too talented to sit. Sunday was encouraging to say the least.

Kane’s passing has always been criminally underrated. We started seeing more long feeds from him during the covid matches, and now Son is finding the rhythm to link up on the reg. It’s good to see them back at it.

Charlie Eccleshare of the Athletic wrote a sick article about Kane’s role shifting further back the field to do what Eriksen used to do. I love it. Kane can poach with the best, but this move activates our wingers much better.

Son, Bergwijn, Moura, and now Bale. That’s some serious counterattack assets to link up with. Kane for 100 assists this year.

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Also…

Well well well… Would ya look at that? And also this…

Crybaby Ndombele is gonna stop sucking? Holy shit, we might be really fucking good this year!

Sonny Scores Four to Massacre Southampton

End This Shitty Rangers Season With the Most Epic Silver Boot Ever

Huge loss by the Rangers last night. Huuuuge and clutch loss for us!

We almost screwed ourselves after building 3-0 lead through five. We were looking way too dominant and I was getting pissed.

Finally in the bottom of the 6th, Wes Benjamin was reminded that he’s a 27 year old rookie with no future in the league and was out there for one single job. He got it done. Six run shellacking to pull the D-Bags ahead and save our season.

Jack Leiter, here we come! Wooooh let’s go!

Second-to-last is all but wrapped. The Pirates have a matinee in a few minutes coming up and if they win that, they’ll have fucked up and won a four game series vs the Cubs. Kumar may be in reach!

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Four games left vs the crybaby disastros. Should we just let them win and get back to the rivalry next year? Seems like it would be worth it for Kumar, yeah?

Hmm actually, fuck no…

We’re going for that Silver Boot baby! Let’s. Fucking. Go.

Lance Lynn is on the mound tonight. So glad we didn’t trade him. Give it to me Lance! Give it to me Lance! Push! Push!

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Other News:

The Marlins have been fucking up. Started off this Braves series with three runs in the top of the 1st, and then gave up four in the bottom frame. They’ve lost all three games and have been outscored 25-9. What the hell?

Fortunately, the phillies have been fucking up worse, losing 3 of 4 to the Nats (the team we beat over the weekend). The magic number has gone from 6 to 3 this week and we haven’t won a game yet. Sick.

Still, it’s only a one game lead right now. Hopefully Pablo Lopez rescues us tonight.

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Yu Darvish has his final start tomorrow against the White Sox. He spent most of the year in the drivers seat for Cy Young, but that pissant little bitch Trevor Bauer pitched his fifth straight gem last night. 

Yu was +2500 for Cy Young before the season. As someone who’s on that and also went on Twins to win the Central to make up for all the failed Rangers tickets, this is a huge ass game for me. Definitely will be my intermission activity during Stars.

End This Shitty Rangers Season With the Most Epic Silver Boot Ever

Rangers Can Salvage the Season With a Clutch Loss to Arizona Tonight

In the month that has passed since getting ritually massacred by Slam Diego and their four straight grand slams, the Rangers season has gone from doomed to straight up catastrophic.

They ended that Padres series at 10-14 and proceeded to trash up the joint over the ensuing weeks for a 3-13 record. Somehow, that losing streak was so great that the Rangers finished Labor Day within the grasp of the greatest beacon of hope this franchise has ever seen.

Standing at 13-27, the Rangers were a half game ahead (behind?) the Pittsburgh Pirates for dead last in the MLB and the rights to draft this guy…

Holy shit. Fuck winning. We’re still rebuilding anyway. We can make a run for this blindian sensation and get one of the most badass prospects I’ve ever seen!

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Not so fast, says Lance Lynn as he immediately spearheads a series win vs Angels and a split with the freakin 1st place Athletics.

What the hell, man? We had nothing to gain by winning and everything to lose! Why, whhyyyy did we have to start winning all of a sudden?

The worst part – we could have easily traded Lynn for a haul at the deadline. If it weren’t for Shane Bieber, he’d be in the drivers seat of a Cy Young race. He’s an ASSET and then some for prospective playoff teams.

1.93 ERA and .92 WHIP going into the deadline. A 4-1 record with our garbage ass offense. This is a bonified ace starting pitcher for chrissakes! What is he doing on our team still??

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Jon Daniels said the offers weren’t good enough, but that’s hard to believe and his seat has grown hotter than it’s ever been. This is a tough pill to swallow.

Anybody’s who’s read my baseblogs before will know that I’m a huge Jon Daniels apologist and that isn’t changing any time soon. I find it impossible to believe he’s as stupid as he’s seemed to look this year.

A more likely theory is that our sketchy-as-hell ownership group found themselves in a serious bind by building a new stadium (albeit after scamming the hell out of Arlington) and opening it in a fan-less pandemic season. On top of oil markets crashing all year, the owners are kind of fucked and need to sell tickets next year. They wouldn’t sign off on a tear-down.

It’s a much more sound theory than the idea that our god GM, who’s been among the smartest men in baseball for 15 years, would be so mind-numbingly over his head at the trade deadline.

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Fortunately, there’s still hope for 2020. We won’t be able to finish last place, but it looked like that was out of reach from the start because the Pirates are just so god damn awful that out-losing them was impossible. But we do have a shot at second to last…

And there’s another pitcher from Vandy that’s apparently almost as good as Kumar – Jack Leiter. Oh shit, that’s awesome!

We entered a two game series at Arizona last night, and the Rangers struck first with a clutch as hell blowout loss. D-bags over Rangers in a 7-0 drubbing. Love it.

If we lose tonight, we have a 3.5 game cushion over those fuckers with just four games vs houston remaining. The battle for Leiter would be all but won.

Come on Rangers – LOSE!!

We’re starting some shitty 27 year old rookie named Wes Benjamin.

D-bags -151. Lock it up.

Rangers Can Salvage the Season With a Clutch Loss to Arizona Tonight

Last Week of the Marlins Pennant Race – Magic Number 6

There are seven games left in the Marlins regular season and it’s time to clinch a playoff spot.

We went 4-4 against the Red Sox and Nats over the past week, which is somewhat weak for two bad teams but it doesn’t matter because we beat the piss out of philly in the much more important series beforehand.

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On deck to end the season is four games at Braves and then three games at Yankees. Best case scenario: sweep the Braves and leapfrog them for 1st place in the East.

If that doesn’t happen, we have to either (1) finish ahead of the phillies or (2) finish ahead TWO teams of either Cards, Reds, Brewers, or Giants.

The magic number with the phillies is SIX. They have four games at Nats followed by three games at Rays. If the Rays have the AL East locked up by then and rest their starters, then the Yankees would be doing the same thing in our last series. Advantage Marlins for sure.

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The computers give us about an 80% chance of clinching, but I think it’s more like 100%. We’ve got a nice week of relatively low stress but still important games coming up. As long as there’s not a total collapse, the Marlins are playing October baseball.

And once that happens, hoo boy watch out. Not only are the Fish undefeated in playoff series all time, but they’ve got a trio of aces – Sixto Sanchez, Pablo Lopez, and Sandy Alcantara – that could put the fear of god into any NL team outside of SoCal.

Not bad for year #3 of the Jeter rebuild. Let’s finish this season off and start making some RE2PECT The Process noise come October.

Last Week of the Marlins Pennant Race – Magic Number 6

NFL Lock of the Week: Washington +7 at Arizona

For most of the first half last week vs philly, the Washington Football Team looked as terrible as the redskins were back in the day. Then they flipped a switch and let loose some pure domination.

27 unanswered points (could’ve been 34 if they didn’t kneel out a garbage time goal-to-go series). Eight sacks. EIGHT!

That defensive front I was talking about on season’s eve looks more than legit. Unfortunately, the offensive front looks bad. According to PFF grades, it’s like all time reeaallyy baaddd, especially in pass blocking. 

Haskins is gonna need to exercise this type of leadership on their offensive counterparts…

Until then, he can use his legs and the west coast scheme that worked very well last Sunday.

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Washington opened at +6.5 and is now at the key number of +7 vs Arizona this afternoon. This is my lock of the week.

Obviously, I’ve been a fan of Washington since preseason and expect their good play to continue. Arizona, on the other hand, seems to be the darling sleeper team amongst NFL fans and I disagree with that.

The first reason is coaching. As a native North Texan, I’ve seen enough Texas Tech to know how this road with Kliff Kingsbury goes. Coach Bro comes out all handsome and cocky looking, puts up a ton of points with an exciting young quarterback, and then loses a ton.

Kliff is the definition of ‘failing upward’. Every Tech fan and follower knew he needed to be fired and take a step down as a coordinator somewhere else in the college ranks. Instead, an NFL franchise hires him as head coach because…

Unbelievable. Not only the hiring itself, but also how oblivious NFL fans are to how bad it was is so unbelievable. 35-40 record at Texas Tech, including a 12-13 run over two full years with PATRICK MAHOMES as a starter.

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Now Kliff has a different QB, another young fan darling in Kyler Murray. I get the infatuation, kind of… He’s presumably a faster Russell Wilson, but he’s also a tinier Russ who will probably get hurt.

Kyler is another Texas product and anyone who’s been following him from the beginning knows that, with the exception of one year at A&M, he’s found himself in a golden situation every step of the way.

He never lost a game in high school, but he played on a team with 3rd stringers that were better than most starters in the state. There’s a reason Allen High School spent $60M on their stadium plus another untold amount in illegal recruiting of players like Kyler.

Kyler did win a Heisman in college after a sick year under Lincoln Riley, but who hasn’t done that these days?

This may be fairly subjective in analysis, but it’s one I’m pretty confident in it. I have a relative who played (started) on one of Kyler’s previous teams. This relative never says anything bad about anyone, ever. But he doesn’t have anything nice to say about Kyler. That’s enough for me.

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Washington +7 = LOCK

Give me the +275 money line too

NFL Lock of the Week: Washington +7 at Arizona