Deshaun Watson Dream Landing Spot – LA Chargers (Film and Metric Analysis)

Justin Herbert has already ascended to the bonafide elite tier of Deshaun Watson, both in Vegas MVP odds and in the eyes of the common fans.

He is exempt from Watson trade rumors…

Even in Houston, they think a Watson-Herbert swap is unfeasible.

Is this real life???

I say this as a fan of Watson and even more so as a hater of houston – this is a DREAM trade!

To put the true value into perspective, think of the mainstream frontrunners for Watson – the Miami Dolphins.

They’re supposed to unload a treasure chest of franchise altering draft picks that could potentially OP their roster.

And it still might be worth it!

But it would be way more worth it for the Chargers to just swap QBs, especially when there’s a chance when Watson alone improves the Chargers more than the Dolphins.

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Metrics – YAC and Air Yards

If we’re really gonna compare Justin Herbert to Deshaun Watson, then it’s fair to give his ‘record setting rookie season’ a little more scrutiny.

Out of 35 eligible QBs, Herbert ranks in the bottom quintile in YAC yards vs air yards.

Watson and the Dolphins starting QB? Not so much…

More advanced metrics back this up, such as average separation yards where Miami’s two top targeted receivers – DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki – are ranked at 2nd and 3rd worst in the entire league.

The rest of the skill position players, including running backs, are Day 3 draft picks plus rookie 3rd rd pick Lynn Bowden (who played QB in college and is currently learning WR).

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Only the Giants had more roster deficiencies on offense than the Dolphins last year.

It’s not a supporting cast that Watson fans should clamor to see him work with.

Chargers receivers didn’t do this…

And yet somehow the Chargers won much less.

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Metric – QB Winz

Both Dolphins QBs – Fitz and Tua – deserve accolades for dragging that trash roster to the brink of the playoffs.

We can’t guarantee the same happens with Fitz and Herbert…

(Note that the Dolphins defense, while great most of the season, had a Canes-like tendency to fall apart against elite QBs.)

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We can use the same methodology to conclude that two of Tua’s wins would’ve been definite losses under Herbert…

If Tua ever had a performance as poor as Herbert’s Pats-at-home shutout debacle, he would be untradable.

At the very least, do you think Deshaun Watson could improve upon these throws and score more than zero points?

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And then we have the most interesting case study of the season. A head-to-head matchup from Week 10.

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MIA 29 – LAC 21
H2H QB Analysis

I like Herbert. He’s an intriguing talent and it’s not fun to bash him.

But a deeper dive of this game makes it really hard to fathom how he’s exempt from Watson rumors.

It makes no sense.

Most people (understandably) didn’t watch this game. Luckily for them, I’ve cut it up in a way to efficiently and comprehensively see what’s up.

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Throwing Metrics Breakdown

If screens and dump offs are your jam, then watching a full game of Justin Herbert is football porn…

The majority of Herbert’s throws were to wide open targets, half were short passes, and he had no tight window accuracy.

For Tua, it was the opposite in each regard.

A classic example of how basic passing stats don’t correlate strongly with QB Winz (and that’s without factoring for garbage time yards)

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Film – Throws Watson Makes

Here is a sample of seven Herbert throws that don’t stand up to the caliber of Deshaun Watson…

Wide open misses, a brutal interception, hesitation, slow deliveries.

Spraying the ball around like that on 20% of your passing attempts is how games get lost. Tua would be excruciated for those throws.

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Fortunately for the Dolphins, he never threw that poorly and that is how a tank-job offensive roster nearly made the playoffs.

Out of all ten incompletions that day, are any of them as bad as those any of those Herbert throws? I really don’t think so…

Watson definitely improves on some of those passes, but a better receiver improves just as many.

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From looking at just the bad throws so far, the Chargers need Watson more than the Dolphins.

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Film – Long Throws

Both QBs had the same number of 10+ yard completions at eight a piece.

However, to save time I omitted all the easy screen and dump off throws.

Here are all the passes that had to travel 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage before hitting a receiver…

No doubt – those two garbage time throws must’ve been pretty sweet on Red Zone, especially for all the over 48.5 bettors.

That one early play to a wide open Hunter Henry was pretty good too.

The rest of the film, oddly enough, was money throw after money throw by Tua.

Precision perfect accuracy on every pass he throws.

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One QB looks far superior here and it’s not the one getting Watson comps.

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Film – Scrambling and Intangibles

Finally, we have a cutup of all scrambles plus one bonus intangible play from that Sunday.

It’s safe to say that Watson’s elite mobility would improve both the Chargers and Dolphins equally.

Tua has the edge in quickness and elusiveness (despite coming off major hip surgery), while Herbert has the size advantage.

The bonus intangible play was Tua needing to save a defensive touchdown after the second botched snap of a single drive.

(If you remember from the completions video, he turned the first botched snap into a 3rd and long conversion).

It’s not just skill position players that need upgrading on that offense.

Do we really want to see Watson put up with more of this?

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Conclusion – Dream Trade for Everyone

The evidence is overwhelming.

As a fan of Watson, a huge hater of Houston, and a fair-weather Miami fan that wants to see them actually contend for Super Bowls instead of just making the playoffs every year…

This is obviously a DREAM trade for me.

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Everyone else, who I assume falls into that first ‘fans of Watson’ bucket, should root for this trade just as hard as me.

It’s the one team he could join with both ready-made weapons and an ability to keep building without sacrificing a crippling amount of draft capital.

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Chargers fans should especially cheer for this.

Their offense would be absolute fireworks, and their defense will be fine if Bosa’s healthy and that new coach is half the guru people say.

They’d contend right away and they’d also get a check on Mahomes in the AFC West (while keeping Watson from going to Vegas or Denver).

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And finally, NFL owners should be CLAMORING to make this trade happen.

They’ve been trying to conquer LA for decades, and now that elusive answer is right at their fingertips!

Spanos has the coup of the century in his grasp and he needs to act.

Get it done.

Deshaun Watson Dream Landing Spot – LA Chargers (Film and Metric Analysis)

Marte the Marlin Has Arrived!

By my calculations, it took exactly one night for new Marlins OF Starling Marte to notch himself a full WAR.

What a deadline prize. Now it’s the fish doing the hauling instead of being hauled. Marte has a $12M option for next year that the Marlins are buying too. No more being cheap.

We cleaned the slate and are now barreling forward with a team that’s both in playoff position and has a top 5 farm system. RE2PECT The Process indeed.

To get Marte, we gave up a solid starter and a solid prospect starter – Caleb Smith and Humberto Mejia, respectively. The D-Bags may be happy, but they also suck at trading.

The Marlins are stacked in pitching, so we are certainly happy trading two spares for a win already.

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One of the reasons we are stacked is the starter tonight. Yep, it’s Sixto Clock. He’s had one start since I raved about his debut. It was his first full start and it came against the first place Rays…

Seven innings pitched, no runs, ten strikeouts, ZERO fly balls. What a legend in the making.

That changeup is just so filthy. It’s either a swing-and-miss or a ground ball. Combine that with a 100mph fireball and we’ve got something special on our hands. Lol philly.

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The fish didn’t just buy at the deadline. We also did an awesome job of selling. Second baseman Johnathan Villar went to Toronto in exchange for one of the best power hitting OF prospects in baseball – Griffin Conine. He’s the son of ‘Mr Marlin’ Jeff Conine.

Villar is good, but Isan Diaz is coming back from the covid list to replace him. Isan was one of the top prospects in the bigs last year, so hopefully he produces.

If he ends up sucking, we have another option in Jazz Chisholm. He was our #3 prospect going into this season, ahead of Sixto at #4. He has the potential to be one of those rare power hitting shortstops. He’s in the lineup tonight and I’m all excited to get jazzy at Sixto Clock.

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OTHER NOTES:

-DeGrom started four straight games against us. FOUR! What the hell, Mets? Can you pitch him against someone else for once?

Fortunately we scraped out a comeback win for his last start on Monday. It was an off day trip to Queens for a makeup game in the middle of a long homestand. Gutsy victory.

Trevor Rogers, another badass prospect recently added to the rotation, got the win. He’s moving to the bullpen to be a setup man for our badass closer Brandon Kintzler, who is 8/8 on save opps.

-Only the Dodgers have a better road record than our 14-7. Nobody has a worse home record than our 2-8. That home record is gonna regress, and it started with last night’s win to double our tally.

-It is now September 2020 and the Marlins are above .500 with a drivers seat to a playoff spot. They’re stacked with pitching and have never lost a playoff series in their two-title history. Watch. Out.

Marte the Marlin Has Arrived!

This COVID Remake of a Famous WW2 Song Is So Sick

If you like sports, chances are you like history. Because history is war, and sports are simulated war.

That’s one of several reasons there’s a new song out that’s just really moving me man. This is some art…

It’s a covid remake of a famous WW2 song from the UK in 1939 about going away to war. The original singer, Vera Lynn, was known as the Forces’ Sweetheart and gave performances to citizens sheltering inside the London tubes during the Battle of Britain.

Here is the original…

Lynn passed away earlier this June at age 103. I don’t know if this song was in the works before that or if it was inspired by it. Either way, it’s a hell of a tribute.

Haven’t had a song hit me like this in ages, maybe ever. Thank you to LP Giobbi and the hot singer Little Boots.

This COVID Remake of a Famous WW2 Song Is So Sick

Do the Cowboys Have a Certified Death Star Front With Everson Griffin?

We all the knows the Cowboys offense is certified Death Star status and possibly one of the greatest of all time. The defense? Just needs to be solid enough to hold teams under 35, and the prospects for that got way easier last week when we signed EVERSON GRIFFIN!

Ohh ho hum just a nice little rental for a $6M Pro Bowler to add to this group…

We officially have the best front seven since the glory days. Everson Griffin is just as good at pass rushing as Robert Quinn, except Griffin can actually stop the run too.

Speaking of run stopping, we have big DTs for the first time since like, ever… Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe. No more Rod Marinelli banging his god damned hand on the table to make us draft Trysten Hill. We finally have competence over the ball in the form of eight combined Pro Bowls.

That will free up the best young LB duo in the league to do cool superstar LB stuff. Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith are switching positions – LVE to Mike; Smith to Will – because Mike Nolan does this novel thing with his linebackers called blitzing. It’s going to be awesome to watch.

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Speaking of rushing the passer, D-Law is still a top five edge rusher in the league and will actually have a training camp this year. It’s so nice when your star player doesn’t have to hold out on his surgery for four months because you procrastinate on giving him a fair contract. He’ll be certified Death Star status this year for sure.

The depth on the pass rush hinges on Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory. Two huge question mark players yes, but if just one of them works out the pass rush will be so deep and deadly. If both of them work out? Quarterbacks will start looking like Alderaan.

And to top it all off, we have one of the most legendary position coaches of all time – Jim Tomsula baby. 

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So is it fair to call this front seven a Death Star unit? No. Because as I was writing this blog, Gerald McCoy ruptured a tendon and is out for the season. God damnit. Antwaun Woods and Tyrone Crawford are going to have to not suck, which is possible. But until then we are just badass Star Destroyer status. With our offense, that’s more than fine by me.

Do the Cowboys Have a Certified Death Star Front With Everson Griffin?

JoePa Saves Stars Season With 12 Seconds Left! HOLY FUCK YES!!

Ohh man oh man were the Stars so fucked right at this moment in time…

It looked like a higher scoring version of Friday night. Another game without Tkachump and another game we dominated by any measure of anal ytics. 64% Corsi, +1.5 xG, but also another god damned damned shorthanded goal given up! As well as enough other random fuckups (and another bullshit ref call) to have church bells ringing on the season.

And then the Klingberg entry. The Seguin gymnast splits. And the cool old JoePa backhand for the season saving hattie.

And the Stars. Are. Fucking back babyyy!!

Oh yeah there was overtime too. A tense sixteen minutes until we broke some fuckers stick and set him up in front of this rocket by none other than John Klingberg who I never ever doubted

And just like that all in the world is right again. The sun is out, the people are smiling, and the Stars are good again.

And now I got that Michael Buble song stuck in my head. It’s a new dawn. It’s a new day. We’ll party like its ninety niiiinne? Yes we may!

JoePa Saves Stars Season With 12 Seconds Left! HOLY FUCK YES!!

Stars Screw the Pooch, Again. We’re in Trouble

The Stars fucked up big time on Friday night in a game where everything was set up our way. We had a back to back coming off a night where we physically beat the shit out of the Flames to the point where Tkachuk couldn’t play. We also had a rested goalie on top of the fact that our squad is superior to Calgary in every way.

The advanced stats say we dominated. Corsi was an obscene 70% in our favor, and that doesn’t include power plays that we had more of. Expected goals indicate the score should’ve been the opposite of the actual result.

70 total shot attempts. 22 of them were blocked, 35 of them were saved by Cam freaking Talbot, and the rest hit air. Like this one from John Klingberg…

I don’t feel too great about singling out Klingberg because everyone sucked at shooting the other night, but Klingberg was especially poor. He was a staple and a budding superstar five years ago when we were a 1 seed, but now at only age 28 he doesn’t seem good at all anymore. It’s concerning.

We gave up a shorthanded goal, AGAIN, and then a second off a very lazy icing violation. We get shut out 2-0 and now we have to grind against freaking Calgary. Series price is +179. Might as well triple down on that, but my confidence in going all the way to party like it’s 1999 is officially dwindling.

Stars Screw the Pooch, Again. We’re in Trouble

Champions League Gambling Lock: Bayern vs Barca

Both of the games so far have been awesome even though my picks have sucked. That will partially continue today – this matchup is the best of the entire tournament and will probably decide the champion, while the theory of third time’s a charm means I’m probably due for a win.

I’ll be dead honest in saying that Bayern looks like the best team in the world right now and is stacked from top to bottom, but with the odds in place I have to go with Barca. People are sleeping on them because they sleepwalked through La Liga restart and choked away the title, but I have a feeling they’ll take Champions League a bit more seriously…

On paper, Barcelona’s starting XI can be the best in the world on any given day. Don’t forget that last year, they had a commanding 3-0 lead on Liverpool after the first legs of the semis. Yes that Liverpool. Lack of depth and focus keeps leading to occasional fuckups at Barca, and that’s why they haven’t won Europe in a whopping five years now.

This year is different though. Single elimination changes everything and Barca are built perfect for it. They can put goals in the net no matter what the format is, but single games help out a defense that needs to contain a team for only 90 minutes instead of 180. It’s also advantage to older teams.

Is Messi in form?

Yes. I think he is in quite good form. This is the year we finally put to rest the tired argument of Messi vs Ronaldo. Love both of them to death, but Messi is the goat and it’s not even close. Give me the dude who singlehandedly carried Argentina to the World Cup final over the dude who won a Euro Cup from the sidelines. Give me the dude who just pulled off that wonder goal vs Napoli over the dude who just got bounced by Lyon.

Give me half units on Barca ML (+242) and Barca to advance (+160) on top of the previously posted full unit future on Barca to win Champions League (+800).

Champions League Gambling Lock: Bayern vs Barca

Can Tkachump the Coward Ice Up Enough to Play Tonight?

The first order of business last night was putting that coward Matthew Tkachump in the training room, and our captain got to work as soon as a face-off opportunity presented itself. This is how you spear a bitch…

Tkachump left the game, but came back hobbled and had his head hunted for the rest of the night. It was awesome to watch. Vintage stuff just like we used to do in Edmonton rd1 in the glory days. Maybe next year Tkachump will hold off on diving until a little longer than the very first period of a playoff series.

The final blow came early in the third, when Benn and Oleksiak sandwiched that little turd and took him off the ice for good

Oleksiak also delivered the final blow on the scoresheet by netting the game winner with just 39 seconds(!) left. It came off a very nifty cross-ice feed by Corey Perry. That’s right.. THAT Corey Perry. He also had a goal! He sucked way less, and we don’t have to keep hating him as much as we did when he was on the Ducks.

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I hope everyone followed my advice and doubled down on Stars +189 for the series price. If you didn’t, you might as well just throw it all on -110 now because that line is still a joke.

That’s not to say we wouldn’t have issues against a better team like the Avs. We gave up the first goal just 19 seconds into the game, which makes ten straight games of giving up the first goal. Gotta stop that shit. We also collapsed in the third period by giving up a shorthanded goal and then a power play goal that came from a stupid Radulov o-zone penalty. Nevertheless, we’re still light years better than Calgary and we can breeze through them with a half effort.

OTHER NOTES:

-Heiskanen had two goals over 25 very dominant minutes. He is the best defenseman in the league. I wouldn’t trade him for anybody right now. Thank god we have him instead of Karlsson.

-Gurianov drew two penalties and was a beast on the puck all night, but he only played 10 minutes. We were leading for most of the game so that is a possible reason, but he needs to play more.

-Bishop showed flashes of his god mode but isn’t quite up to that full status yet. That’s fine. Until he gets there, we can rotate Dobby and keep our goalies rested but not rusty. It’s worked very well the past two regular seasons, and could be huge for us in a compressed playoff schedule.

-Next game is tonight! Gotta love the playoff back to backs, especially when you have two goalies and your opponent is hurting bad. Hey Tkachump…

Can Tkachump the Coward Ice Up Enough to Play Tonight?

Rafael Montero Is the Coolest Closer in the League

Are the Rangers any good? No. Are they in playoff position regardless? You bet your ass they are!

One of the reasons for that is our new shut down closer Rafael Montero. He got his first save a week ago and has been 4/4 since. Four innings, four strikeouts, four saves, and ZERO baserunners allowed.

Another diamond in the rough discovered by our lord and savior Jon Daniels. He signed a minor league contract last year while recovering from Tommy John, and now he is a bonafide badass closer. At WORST, he could net us some sick prospects in a trade for the price of… nothing!

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Earlier in his career (2016-2017), Montero was a big time prospect for the Mets. I spoke with some Mets fans and they both said that Montero starts were appointment viewing for a time, but injuries and poor organizational development fucked him over. At any rate, he’s 10x the closer that Ed-lose Diaz is.

One of the reasons he might be working out better here than Queens is the switch from rotation to the bullpen. He’s been throwing 97% fastball and changeups, but his fastballs move slickly and paint black. It’s a closer’s repertoire.

Montero also has the perfect demeanor for the role. He checks off all three C’s of closer intangibles perfectly – cool hair, confidence, composure. 

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When José Leclerc comes back from injury, he can share setup duties with rookie phenom Jonathan Hernández. Then we have Kluber possibly coming back as the best middle reliever of all time, and all of a sudden our bullpen is the best it’s been since 2011.

‘Minor, Lynn, and what then?’ is now ‘Minor, Lynn, and our badass bullpen’. Thanks Jon Daniels!

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Series win at Seattle. We are now officially in mid-August with meaningful Rangers baseball. If the bats suck a little bit less, we’ll be in the playoffs with one of the best pitching staffs in the majors. Can’t ask for anything more in a rebuild year.

Let’s get after it

Rafael Montero Is the Coolest Closer in the League

Champions League Gambling Lock: Atletico vs RB Leipzig

Atletico Madrid vs RB Leipzig in the quarterfinals today. I’m obviously going Spaniards after writing yesterday that Atletico +850 was a future to get on.

They always goes far in this tournament and were one PK away from beating peak Madrid for a title. They’re made for tournaments like this and they’ve already proven that this season by beating Liverpool last round. Yes that Liverpool. And now Atletico has Diego Costa up front, and he’s a dirty mother fucker who’s perfect for them.

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I tried being a Red Bull Leipzig fan a few months back during the Bundesliga blue balls days. It cost me money, and that was when their best player Timo Wermer was still playing for them. He’s already left for Chelsea, so I plan on winning that money back today.

RB Leipzig are an interesting story in that they’re the most hated team in Germany. The Red Bull company found some loopholes to circumvent Germany’s ’50-plus-one’ rule restriction on corporate ownership, which makes them evil in most Germans’ eyes. Well, West Germans that is, as East Germans usually come from cities too historically poor to have a great soccer team.

Leipzig was an example of one of those Eastern German cities until Red Bull bought the squad and over a period of ten years, they stormed up from the fifth division all the way to Champions League Quarterfinals. It’s a wild story and quite controversial. We should all take responsibility to learn up on it and follow them because Red Bull is an Austrian company, and we definitely need to keep an eye on any Austrians causing ruckuses up there.

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But while Leipzig is an interesting story, they’re not in the same stratosphere as Atletico yet. If the second leg of Leipzig-Tottenham was scheduled a week later (and subsequently postponed to last week because of covid), then this match would be Atletico vs Tottenham. Fact.

OFFICIAL PICKS: one unit Atletico (+130), one unit Atletico to win Champion’s League (+850)

Champions League Gambling Lock: Atletico vs RB Leipzig