A measured, unbiased take from a fair weather Dolfan. They are not a home team, just a local team, which means I know them both intimately and objectively.

Here are some facts that led me to the path of TuAnon discipleship.

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Miami has done more winning under Tua than at any point in the past 20 years.  First time back-to-back winning records since Ricky was still running.  That includes a perfect 3-0 record vs tomorrow’s opponent.

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The perception is Tua’s been carried by a superstar supporting cast.  The reality is Miami underwent one of the most blatant tank jobs in sports history the year before he arrived.

Did the defense turn around quickly?  Sure.  The offense?  Not so much.  Here were skill position teammates for his first win against the aforementioned Patriots.

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Now the roster did improve slightly last year, but it wouldn’t have if Tua haters had their way.  Even at the lowest, most pessimistic moment of the season, Dolfans unanimously agreed that Deshaun Watson wouldn’t have fixed their problems. 

“Wins are not a quarterback stat! But all the Dolphins need is a quarterback!” Jerk off motion.

Final score: Titans 34, Dolphins 3 😕

POLL: Would the Fins have won if they traded….

Tua + Waddle + Jaelan Phillips + Jevon Holland (plus another 2+ picks)

for Deshaun Watson?

— 7thFloorKrewe (@7thFloorKrewe) January 2, 2022

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But while the roster was better last year, some things were much worse.  Specifically, the offensive line.

Cowboys fans remember a time after we fired Chan Gailey and the o-line became worse than imaginable.  Well, I finally watched one that was even worse.  The worst I have ever seen.

But he still delivered.  4.9% sack rate – 8th lowest in the league.  With the worst pass blocking in history.

But despite all that, us Tua supporters are the Qanon of sports.  He’s the most slandered and ridiculed quarterback I’ve ever followed.  A practice highlight got 7M hate views.  Tyreek Hill gets death threats for talking him up.  Why all the hate?

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There’s three main reasons imo – (1) injuries, (2) arm strength, and (3) the Raiders game.  Honorable mention is Bama hate, Polynesian people hate, and lefty hate.  Let’s break down the big three…

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Injuries – the only legitimate concern.  He’s had to remodel his game from being Russ-like out of high school to a Drew Brees 2.0 now.

Get the ball out quick, lean on elite accuracy/anticipation, and don’t take hits.  I’ve been liking what I’ve seen so far, as evidenced by the commentary above on the worst pass blocking o-line in NFL history.

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Arm Strength – again, another Drew Brees trait.  Accuracy and anticipation has to make up for velocity.  The deep ball, however, is still elite.  Yes, I said elite

Tua – had NFL’s highest air yard completion of the week in 2 of his final 7 starts post injuries (29%)

Despite averaging league last 2.1 seconds of pocket time behind the worst o-line in NFL history

Get these lazy, basic takes outta here 🗑 #TuaDerangementSyndrome https://t.co/kQAYDQcUVT pic.twitter.com/xXMbKJLEBh

— 7thFloorKrewe (@7thFloorKrewe) March 23, 2022

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The Raiders game – it sucks that this is the only full Tua game most NFL fans have seen.

Who knows how different things would be if his primetime game had been the shootout vs Cards to knock Kyler out of playoff contention or the H2H Herbert ass whooping to knock out the Chargers. Hell even the Ravens game which Tua kinda sucked in worked out way better.

It would take an entirely separate post to unpack the overreactions, so for the sake of brevity I’ll just say that every single rookie bar Mac Jones is a bust by the standard set after that game. If that’s ‘rock bottom’ QB play, sign me up for that QB.

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Bitch ass Brian Flores

Tua haters love Flores for some reason.  It’s extremely hypocritical after how most of most of them outraged over Deshaun Watson, but hating Tua always takes priority over hating sexual predator enablers in this world.

Those of us who watched Dolphins know Flores was the fucking worst.  Just another bum ass Belichick protégé.  Sabotaged the offense last year to force the hand on Deshaun Watson.  Disgusting on so many levels.

He’s not a problem for TuAnon anymore.  It’s Mike McDaniel time – Bong Shula baby let it rip!  The most brilliant, charismatic coach I’ve ever seen and I cannot wait to see how this unfolds.

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Tua’s Track Team

Bong Shula brought TuAnon faithful some new toys to enjoy.

Tyreek Hill is the fastest receiver in the league.  Raheem Mostert is the fastest back.  Add in Chase Edmonds, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki and you get one of the fastest teams we’ve ever seen.

No more league-worst YAC for Tua.  (Bong Shula’s offense boasted the highest YAC rate in the league last year, fyi).

Oh yeah and there’s also Hall of Famer Terron Armstead on the line now.

https://twitter.com/d1chosen2/status/1465557055092273153?s=46&t=Tir6DEcDLin_q0qUu_hNTA

Round 1 of the Miami Heat’s 2022 playoff run was a complete joke as ’Ice Trae’ melted into oblivion.

Time to put to bed for good any notion that the Hawks got anything but fleeced with their pants down in the Luka trade.

Luka singlehandedly pushed the full strength max health Kawhi/PG Clippers to the brink last year, but it paled in comparison to squeaking into playoffs and beating the big mighty 2 seed knicks!  And then a terrifying sixers team built around a cornerstone “superstar” who was too terrified to attempt wide open dunks.

^^ something NBA fans unironically believe.

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Speaking of the sixers, they’re the Heat’s next opponent after taking down the big bad Toronto Raptors.  It only took six games and all the health of their other big cornerstone “superstar”.

Quite frankly, I’m sad and disappointed in the state of Joel Embiitch’s health for this series.  I wanted him at full strength for the full embarrassment.

Unfortunately, he gets to process his way through another summer of bullshit excuses before embarking on another fraud season tricking fans into thinking he’s some MVP caliber cornerstone.  Sucks.

I guess there’s always the chance that Doc Rivers and James Harden can save this series.  They definitely fit the profile of mentally tough postseason monsters that can overcome Heat Culture right…

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Anyway, on to the Heat themselves.  As a bandwagon local fan, I’ve enjoyed watching them breeze through this season.

They would probably be a 5 seed if they played in the West, but that doesn’t matter right now.  They are 1 seed out East and only have one challenging series next round to hit the +500 conference champ odds.

Then it’s +1000 for the title and who knows what kind of shot they’ll get against a depleted west team having gone through a gauntlet.  A tale as old as two decades in this NBA.

Coach Spo is for real.  Heat Culture is for real.  The depth, the defense, the shooting, and Tyler Herro are all for real.

Jimmy Butler is not, but he doesn’t need to be.  He just needs to be self-aware and buy into Heat Culture and not pretend he’s a superstar.  And he’s been doing that just fine all season.  With the pieces Miami has everywhere else, that’s more than enough to win.

Bring on the bucks.

Justin Herbert has already ascended to the bonafide elite tier of Deshaun Watson, both in Vegas MVP odds and in the eyes of the common fans.

He is exempt from Watson trade rumors…

Even in Houston, they think a Watson-Herbert swap is unfeasible.

Is this real life???

I say this as a fan of Watson and even more so as a hater of houston – this is a DREAM trade!

To put the true value into perspective, think of the mainstream frontrunners for Watson – the Miami Dolphins.

They’re supposed to unload a treasure chest of franchise altering draft picks that could potentially OP their roster.

And it still might be worth it!

But it would be way more worth it for the Chargers to just swap QBs, especially when there’s a chance when Watson alone improves the Chargers more than the Dolphins.

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Metrics – YAC and Air Yards

If we’re really gonna compare Justin Herbert to Deshaun Watson, then it’s fair to give his ‘record setting rookie season’ a little more scrutiny.

Out of 35 eligible QBs, Herbert ranks in the bottom quintile in YAC yards vs air yards.

Watson and the Dolphins starting QB? Not so much…

More advanced metrics back this up, such as average separation yards where Miami’s two top targeted receivers – DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki – are ranked at 2nd and 3rd worst in the entire league.

The rest of the skill position players, including running backs, are Day 3 draft picks plus rookie 3rd rd pick Lynn Bowden (who played QB in college and is currently learning WR).

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Only the Giants had more roster deficiencies on offense than the Dolphins last year.

It’s not a supporting cast that Watson fans should clamor to see him work with.

Chargers receivers didn’t do this…

And yet somehow the Chargers won much less.

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Metric – QB Winz

Both Dolphins QBs – Fitz and Tua – deserve accolades for dragging that trash roster to the brink of the playoffs.

We can’t guarantee the same happens with Fitz and Herbert…

(Note that the Dolphins defense, while great most of the season, had a Canes-like tendency to fall apart against elite QBs.)

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We can use the same methodology to conclude that two of Tua’s wins would’ve been definite losses under Herbert…

If Tua ever had a performance as poor as Herbert’s Pats-at-home shutout debacle, he would be untradable.

At the very least, do you think Deshaun Watson could improve upon these throws and score more than zero points?

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And then we have the most interesting case study of the season. A head-to-head matchup from Week 10.

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MIA 29 – LAC 21
H2H QB Analysis

I like Herbert. He’s an intriguing talent and it’s not fun to bash him.

But a deeper dive of this game makes it really hard to fathom how he’s exempt from Watson rumors.

It makes no sense.

Most people (understandably) didn’t watch this game. Luckily for them, I’ve cut it up in a way to efficiently and comprehensively see what’s up.

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Throwing Metrics Breakdown

If screens and dump offs are your jam, then watching a full game of Justin Herbert is football porn…

The majority of Herbert’s throws were to wide open targets, half were short passes, and he had no tight window accuracy.

For Tua, it was the opposite in each regard.

A classic example of how basic passing stats don’t correlate strongly with QB Winz (and that’s without factoring for garbage time yards)

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Film – Throws Watson Makes

Here is a sample of seven Herbert throws that don’t stand up to the caliber of Deshaun Watson…

Wide open misses, a brutal interception, hesitation, slow deliveries.

Spraying the ball around like that on 20% of your passing attempts is how games get lost. Tua would be excruciated for those throws.

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Fortunately for the Dolphins, he never threw that poorly and that is how a tank-job offensive roster nearly made the playoffs.

Out of all ten incompletions that day, are any of them as bad as those any of those Herbert throws? I really don’t think so…

Watson definitely improves on some of those passes, but a better receiver improves just as many.

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From looking at just the bad throws so far, the Chargers need Watson more than the Dolphins.

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Film – Long Throws

Both QBs had the same number of 10+ yard completions at eight a piece.

However, to save time I omitted all the easy screen and dump off throws.

Here are all the passes that had to travel 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage before hitting a receiver…

No doubt – those two garbage time throws must’ve been pretty sweet on Red Zone, especially for all the over 48.5 bettors.

That one early play to a wide open Hunter Henry was pretty good too.

The rest of the film, oddly enough, was money throw after money throw by Tua.

Precision perfect accuracy on every pass he throws.

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One QB looks far superior here and it’s not the one getting Watson comps.

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Film – Scrambling and Intangibles

Finally, we have a cutup of all scrambles plus one bonus intangible play from that Sunday.

It’s safe to say that Watson’s elite mobility would improve both the Chargers and Dolphins equally.

Tua has the edge in quickness and elusiveness (despite coming off major hip surgery), while Herbert has the size advantage.

The bonus intangible play was Tua needing to save a defensive touchdown after the second botched snap of a single drive.

(If you remember from the completions video, he turned the first botched snap into a 3rd and long conversion).

It’s not just skill position players that need upgrading on that offense.

Do we really want to see Watson put up with more of this?

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Conclusion – Dream Trade for Everyone

The evidence is overwhelming.

As a fan of Watson, a huge hater of Houston, and a fair-weather Miami fan that wants to see them actually contend for Super Bowls instead of just making the playoffs every year…

This is obviously a DREAM trade for me.

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Everyone else, who I assume falls into that first ‘fans of Watson’ bucket, should root for this trade just as hard as me.

It’s the one team he could join with both ready-made weapons and an ability to keep building without sacrificing a crippling amount of draft capital.

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Chargers fans should especially cheer for this.

Their offense would be absolute fireworks, and their defense will be fine if Bosa’s healthy and that new coach is half the guru people say.

They’d contend right away and they’d also get a check on Mahomes in the AFC West (while keeping Watson from going to Vegas or Denver).

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And finally, NFL owners should be CLAMORING to make this trade happen.

They’ve been trying to conquer LA for decades, and now that elusive answer is right at their fingertips!

Spanos has the coup of the century in his grasp and he needs to act.

Get it done.

By my calculations, it took exactly one night for new Marlins OF Starling Marte to notch himself a full WAR.

Welcome to Miami, Starling Marte! Go-ahead HR in the 8th inning of his first game in a Marlins uniform. That’s the difference in a 3-2 Fish win. What a way to debut! (🎥 @FOXMarlins) pic.twitter.com/Z41vH3gUYX

— Will Manso (@WillManso) September 2, 2020

THE HEAT HAVE TYLER TUESDAYS…THE #MARLINS HAVE MARTE MARTES!!!
EVERYONE INVITED TO THE MARTE PARTAY!!! @Starlingmart
SNAP INTO A VICTORY SLIM JIM AND DON’T YOUR DARE ASK FURTHER QUESTIONS, MEAN GENE #MACHOMARLINSMAN #JuntosMiami pic.twitter.com/IJRwsuu7Pd

— Brendan Tobin (@Brendan_Tobin) September 2, 2020

What a deadline prize. Now it’s the fish doing the hauling instead of being hauled. Marte has a $12M option for next year that the Marlins are buying too. No more being cheap.

We cleaned the slate and are now barreling forward with a team that’s both in playoff position and has a top 5 farm system. RE2PECT The Process indeed.

To get Marte, we gave up a solid starter and a solid prospect starter – Caleb Smith and Humberto Mejia, respectively. The D-Bags may be happy, but they also suck at trading.

The Marlins are stacked in pitching, so we are certainly happy trading two spares for a win already.

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One of the reasons we are stacked is the starter tonight. Yep, it’s Sixto Clock. He’s had one start since I raved about his debut. It was his first full start and it came against the first place Rays…

Seven innings pitched, no runs, ten strikeouts, ZERO fly balls. What a legend in the making.

That changeup is just so filthy. It’s either a swing-and-miss or a ground ball. Combine that with a 100mph fireball and we’ve got something special on our hands. Lol philly.

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The fish didn’t just buy at the deadline. We also did an awesome job of selling. Second baseman Johnathan Villar went to Toronto in exchange for one of the best power hitting OF prospects in baseball – Griffin Conine. He’s the son of ‘Mr Marlin’ Jeff Conine.

Villar is good, but Isan Diaz is coming back from the covid list to replace him. Isan was one of the top prospects in the bigs last year, so hopefully he produces.

If he ends up sucking, we have another option in Jazz Chisholm. He was our #3 prospect going into this season, ahead of Sixto at #4. He has the potential to be one of those rare power hitting shortstops. He’s in the lineup tonight and I’m all excited to get jazzy at Sixto Clock.

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OTHER NOTES:

-DeGrom started four straight games against us. FOUR! What the hell, Mets? Can you pitch him against someone else for once?

Fortunately we scraped out a comeback win for his last start on Monday. It was an off day trip to Queens for a makeup game in the middle of a long homestand. Gutsy victory.

Trevor Rogers, another badass prospect recently added to the rotation, got the win. He’s moving to the bullpen to be a setup man for our badass closer Brandon Kintzler, who is 8/8 on save opps.

-Only the Dodgers have a better road record than our 14-7. Nobody has a worse home record than our 2-8. That home record is gonna regress, and it started with last night’s win to double our tally.

-It is now September 2020 and the Marlins are above .500 with a drivers seat to a playoff spot. They’re stacked with pitching and have never lost a playoff series in their two-title history. Watch. Out.

Ohh man oh man were the Stars so fucked right at this moment in time…

It looked like a higher scoring version of Friday night. Another game without Tkachump and another game we dominated by any measure of anal ytics. 64% Corsi, +1.5 xG, but also another god damned damned shorthanded goal given up! As well as enough other random fuckups (and another bullshit ref call) to have church bells ringing on the season.

And then the Klingberg entry. The Seguin gymnast splits. And the cool old JoePa backhand for the season saving hattie.

And the Stars. Are. Fucking back babyyy!!

Oh yeah there was overtime too. A tense sixteen minutes until we broke some fuckers stick and set him up in front of this rocket by none other than John Klingberg who I never ever doubted…

And just like that all in the world is right again. The sun is out, the people are smiling, and the Stars are good again.

And now I got that Michael Buble song stuck in my head. It’s a new dawn. It’s a new day. We’ll party like its ninety niiiinne? Yes we may!