Month: September 2020

All Aboard the Twins Train

Wilbanks

After the horrendous Rangers opening weekend, I needed another AL pet team to ride for this once-in-a-lifetime 60 game season gambling opportunity. Without question, my chase bets went to the Twins.

  • 2 units to win the division at -122 (cha ching!)
  • 1 unit to win the AL at +5500
  • 1 unit to win the WS at +1250

Right now, I’m feeling pretty damn good with the 3 seed and home set against the trash ass disastros. What a time to be alive! Not only is my pet team in a good bracket spot, but they get a warmup round against my most hated sports team of all time. Sick.

Why did I bet the Twins? Aww thanks for asking. I’m surprised you cared!

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First and foremost, they have Nelson Cruz and my heart wants him to get a ring so badly. It’s terrible what happened in St Louis nine years ago, and it’s terrible that it happened to him. We don’t get there without Cruz. Period. He was the MVP of the playoffs.

He hit SIX home runs in the ALCS, with two walkoff grand slams! His defense was important too as that cannon saved us Game 4…

He would’ve had the title-winning home run if Ron Washington had just put Endy Chavez in the game instead of proclaiming the 9th inning “up to god’s hands now” (god damnit), or if that scumbag Simon Crowell didn’t exist.

Alas, enough of that, I’m cheering for Cruz to get his rings with the Twins.

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The other reason I bet the Twins is that I’m a Jon Daniels apologist and Twins GM Thad Levine is a Jon Daniels protege. That dude is smart as shit and I’ll buy into any team he’s running.

They have an offense that MASHES homers. They have a prototype 5 tool center fielder. They have a talented and fairly deep, albeit inconsistent, bullpen. And they have the second best starting pitcher ERA in the AL (behind only Cleveland’s death rotation).

The best of those pitchers is Kenta Maeda, who Levine traded for in the offseason in what was easily the shrewdest baseball move of the past year. Maeda killed it all season and will finish second in Cy Young voting.

He’s starting this afternoon in a leadoff matinee game (god is great) against that crybaby fuck head Zack Greinke. Twins -160. Lock it down.

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I also want to recap how the Twins got to this spot because man oh man was it a wild ride…

They started out on a HOT 10-2 run (one of the losses was a Bieber gem). They had a +30 run differential that was first in the AL by a mile – the next closest at the time was Oakland at +13 – and they led the AL Central by 3 games.

They were scoring early and often, with first inning runs in half of their games (astounding). Out of 108 total innings played, they only trailed after 19 of them.

If you take out the two losses, they were leading after 76/90 innings (84%) and they were tied or leading after 85/90 innings (94%). Truly dominant stuff!

Then the droop came. A 10-14 run against some baaad competition – 21 games against the Royals, Tigers, Brewers, and Pirates. Yeeesh. They entered September trailing the White Sox by 2.5 games.

But then they stormed back with another 10-2 run! It seemed all they needed was better competition to get motivated because they won 2/3 vs the Sox and got a clutch series sweep vs Cleveland.

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On September 14, they entered a huge four game mega series at the Sox to decide the division. And they… kind of fucked it all up. They lost games 1 and 2, won game 3, and then were winning most of game 4 until a couple of meltdowns.

The first came from Josh Donaldson right after hitting the biggest home run of the season

Which shouldn’t have mattered, but the bullpen melted down next inning and the Twins couldn’t rally with a giant hole in their 2 spot. It appeared my money was gone…

But lo and behold, the Sox fucking CHOKED. They lost 8 out of 10 and completely fell apart! The Twins won the Central by one game and now it’s house money time baby!

Instead of traveling to Oakland for the first place A’s, we get those soft ass crybaby, lyin’, cheatin’, scoundrel disastros. 

God is great. And god did I love gambling that 60 game season. Indeed, what a time to be alive.

All Aboard the Twins Train

The Real Death Star Is the Dallas Cowboys Stadium

Wilbanks, ,

The Vegas Raiders are trying to brand their new stadium ‘The Death Star’ and I’m having none of that.

There is only one Death Star and it’s right outside of Dallas. There is only one Empire team and that’s America’s Team. Fuck this noise.

Everyone in Dallas has been calling our stadium the Death Star since day 1. The UnTicket explains the origin (and also is where this badass cover image came from).

Early in 2009, months before the stadium first opened, the Cowboys changed their flagship radio station from The Ticket (a legendary radio station) to The Fan (a trash radio station).

As part of the move, Jerry had to fire Ticket morning host George Dunham (co-host of the tweeter above) from his stadium PA job and replace him with a host on The Fan. It was bullshit because Dunham had been awesome at that job for years, and long before the Ticket had flagship rights as well.

Those morning show hosts found a way to exact revenge through the Death Star moniker, and it’s stuck ever since. It’s an awesome nickname that we should all be proud of.

Fuck you Jerry. We don’t have to call it Jerry World. Thanks for building a beautiful Death Star, Jerry.

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This must’ve seethed our owner more than I realized because Jerry is 100% behind this new Vegas branding. Mark Davis is a puppet owner of the new stadium, while Jerry is the real owner.

It was Jerry who made the move to Vegas happen, secured $650M in crucial financing from Bank of America, and is running all suite and sponsorship sales.

Jerry thinks that by having Mark Davis run with this Death Star schtick in Vegas, we might be forced to stop saying it back in Dallas. Again, I’m having none of that. Fuck off Jerry. Be a better emperor.

The Real Death Star Is the Dallas Cowboys Stadium

Sonny Scores Four to Massacre Southampton

Wilbanks

Sunday was a beautiful morning for Spurs, and especially for Son…

Four goals. FOUR! Within just 26 minutes. What a game.

Sonny’s finishes were superb, but all four assists from Kane were a treat as well.

The past two seasons have been frustrating as hell whenever Son and Kane were on the field together. Both seemed to play better alone, but both are too talented to sit. Sunday was encouraging to say the least.

Kane’s passing has always been criminally underrated. We started seeing more long feeds from him during the covid matches, and now Son is finding the rhythm to link up on the reg. It’s good to see them back at it.

Charlie Eccleshare of the Athletic wrote a sick article about Kane’s role shifting further back the field to do what Eriksen used to do. I love it. Kane can poach with the best, but this move activates our wingers much better.

Son, Bergwijn, Moura, and now Bale. That’s some serious counterattack assets to link up with. Kane for 100 assists this year.

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Also…

Well well well… Would ya look at that? And also this…

Crybaby Ndombele is gonna stop sucking? Holy shit, we might be really fucking good this year!

Sonny Scores Four to Massacre Southampton

End This Shitty Rangers Season With the Most Epic Silver Boot Ever

Wilbanks, , , ,

Huge loss by the Rangers last night. Huuuuge and clutch loss for us!

We almost screwed ourselves after building 3-0 lead through five. We were looking way too dominant and I was getting pissed.

Finally in the bottom of the 6th, Wes Benjamin was reminded that he’s a 27 year old rookie with no future in the league and was out there for one single job. He got it done. Six run shellacking to pull the D-Bags ahead and save our season.

Jack Leiter, here we come! Wooooh let’s go!

Second-to-last is all but wrapped. The Pirates have a matinee in a few minutes coming up and if they win that, they’ll have fucked up and won a four game series vs the Cubs. Kumar may be in reach!

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Four games left vs the crybaby disastros. Should we just let them win and get back to the rivalry next year? Seems like it would be worth it for Kumar, yeah?

Hmm actually, fuck no…

https://twitter.com/Salt_Dodger/status/1309001333115060224?s=20

We’re going for that Silver Boot baby! Let’s. Fucking. Go.

Lance Lynn is on the mound tonight. So glad we didn’t trade him. Give it to me Lance! Give it to me Lance! Push! Push!

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Other News:

The Marlins have been fucking up. Started off this Braves series with three runs in the top of the 1st, and then gave up four in the bottom frame. They’ve lost all three games and have been outscored 25-9. What the hell?

Fortunately, the phillies have been fucking up worse, losing 3 of 4 to the Nats (the team we beat over the weekend). The magic number has gone from 6 to 3 this week and we haven’t won a game yet. Sick.

Still, it’s only a one game lead right now. Hopefully Pablo Lopez rescues us tonight.

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Yu Darvish has his final start tomorrow against the White Sox. He spent most of the year in the drivers seat for Cy Young, but that pissant little bitch Trevor Bauer pitched his fifth straight gem last night. 

Yu was +2500 for Cy Young before the season. As someone who’s on that and also went on Twins to win the Central to make up for all the failed Rangers tickets, this is a huge ass game for me. Definitely will be my intermission activity during Stars.

End This Shitty Rangers Season With the Most Epic Silver Boot Ever

Rangers Can Salvage the Season With a Clutch Loss to Arizona Tonight

Wilbanks, ,

In the month that has passed since getting ritually massacred by Slam Diego and their four straight grand slams, the Rangers season has gone from doomed to straight up catastrophic.

They ended that Padres series at 10-14 and proceeded to trash up the joint over the ensuing weeks for a 3-13 record. Somehow, that losing streak was so great that the Rangers finished Labor Day within the grasp of the greatest beacon of hope this franchise has ever seen.

Standing at 13-27, the Rangers were a half game ahead (behind?) the Pittsburgh Pirates for dead last in the MLB and the rights to draft this guy…

Holy shit. Fuck winning. We’re still rebuilding anyway. We can make a run for this blindian sensation and get one of the most badass prospects I’ve ever seen!

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Not so fast, says Lance Lynn as he immediately spearheads a series win vs Angels and a split with the freakin 1st place Athletics.

What the hell, man? We had nothing to gain by winning and everything to lose! Why, whhyyyy did we have to start winning all of a sudden?

The worst part – we could have easily traded Lynn for a haul at the deadline. If it weren’t for Shane Bieber, he’d be in the drivers seat of a Cy Young race. He’s an ASSET and then some for prospective playoff teams.

1.93 ERA and .92 WHIP going into the deadline. A 4-1 record with our garbage ass offense. This is a bonified ace starting pitcher for chrissakes! What is he doing on our team still??

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Jon Daniels said the offers weren’t good enough, but that’s hard to believe and his seat has grown hotter than it’s ever been. This is a tough pill to swallow.

Anybody’s who’s read my baseblogs before will know that I’m a huge Jon Daniels apologist and that isn’t changing any time soon. I find it impossible to believe he’s as stupid as he’s seemed to look this year.

A more likely theory is that our sketchy-as-hell ownership group found themselves in a serious bind by building a new stadium (albeit after scamming the hell out of Arlington) and opening it in a fan-less pandemic season. On top of oil markets crashing all year, the owners are kind of fucked and need to sell tickets next year. They wouldn’t sign off on a tear-down.

It’s a much more sound theory than the idea that our god GM, who’s been among the smartest men in baseball for 15 years, would be so mind-numbingly over his head at the trade deadline.

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Fortunately, there’s still hope for 2020. We won’t be able to finish last place, but it looked like that was out of reach from the start because the Pirates are just so god damn awful that out-losing them was impossible. But we do have a shot at second to last…

And there’s another pitcher from Vandy that’s apparently almost as good as Kumar – Jack Leiter. Oh shit, that’s awesome!

We entered a two game series at Arizona last night, and the Rangers struck first with a clutch as hell blowout loss. D-bags over Rangers in a 7-0 drubbing. Love it.

If we lose tonight, we have a 3.5 game cushion over those fuckers with just four games vs houston remaining. The battle for Leiter would be all but won.

Come on Rangers – LOSE!!

We’re starting some shitty 27 year old rookie named Wes Benjamin.

D-bags -151. Lock it up.

Rangers Can Salvage the Season With a Clutch Loss to Arizona Tonight

Last Week of the Marlins Pennant Race – Magic Number 6

Wilbanks,

There are seven games left in the Marlins regular season and it’s time to clinch a playoff spot.

We went 4-4 against the Red Sox and Nats over the past week, which is somewhat weak for two bad teams but it doesn’t matter because we beat the piss out of philly in the much more important series beforehand.

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On deck to end the season is four games at Braves and then three games at Yankees. Best case scenario: sweep the Braves and leapfrog them for 1st place in the East.

If that doesn’t happen, we have to either (1) finish ahead of the phillies or (2) finish ahead TWO teams of either Cards, Reds, Brewers, or Giants.

The magic number with the phillies is SIX. They have four games at Nats followed by three games at Rays. If the Rays have the AL East locked up by then and rest their starters, then the Yankees would be doing the same thing in our last series. Advantage Marlins for sure.

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The computers give us about an 80% chance of clinching, but I think it’s more like 100%. We’ve got a nice week of relatively low stress but still important games coming up. As long as there’s not a total collapse, the Marlins are playing October baseball.

And once that happens, hoo boy watch out. Not only are the Fish undefeated in playoff series all time, but they’ve got a trio of aces – Sixto Sanchez, Pablo Lopez, and Sandy Alcantara – that could put the fear of god into any NL team outside of SoCal.

Not bad for year #3 of the Jeter rebuild. Let’s finish this season off and start making some RE2PECT The Process noise come October.

Last Week of the Marlins Pennant Race – Magic Number 6

NFL Lock of the Week: Washington +7 at Arizona

Wilbanks, ,

For most of the first half last week vs philly, the Washington Football Team looked as terrible as the redskins were back in the day. Then they flipped a switch and let loose some pure domination.

27 unanswered points (could’ve been 34 if they didn’t kneel out a garbage time goal-to-go series). Eight sacks. EIGHT!

https://twitter.com/TaeNToddPodcast/status/1305541217942413312?s=20

That defensive front I was talking about on season’s eve looks more than legit. Unfortunately, the offensive front looks bad. According to PFF grades, it’s like all time reeaallyy baaddd, especially in pass blocking. 

Haskins is gonna need to exercise this type of leadership on their offensive counterparts…

Until then, he can use his legs and the west coast scheme that worked very well last Sunday.

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Washington opened at +6.5 and is now at the key number of +7 vs Arizona this afternoon. This is my lock of the week.

Obviously, I’ve been a fan of Washington since preseason and expect their good play to continue. Arizona, on the other hand, seems to be the darling sleeper team amongst NFL fans and I disagree with that.

The first reason is coaching. As a native North Texan, I’ve seen enough Texas Tech to know how this road with Kliff Kingsbury goes. Coach Bro comes out all handsome and cocky looking, puts up a ton of points with an exciting young quarterback, and then loses a ton.

Kliff is the definition of ‘failing upward’. Every Tech fan and follower knew he needed to be fired and take a step down as a coordinator somewhere else in the college ranks. Instead, an NFL franchise hires him as head coach because…

Unbelievable. Not only the hiring itself, but also how oblivious NFL fans are to how bad it was is so unbelievable. 35-40 record at Texas Tech, including a 12-13 run over two full years with PATRICK MAHOMES as a starter.

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Now Kliff has a different QB, another young fan darling in Kyler Murray. I get the infatuation, kind of… He’s presumably a faster Russell Wilson, but he’s also a tinier Russ who will probably get hurt.

Kyler is another Texas product and anyone who’s been following him from the beginning knows that, with the exception of one year at A&M, he’s found himself in a golden situation every step of the way.

He never lost a game in high school, but he played on a team with 3rd stringers that were better than most starters in the state. There’s a reason Allen High School spent $60M on their stadium plus another untold amount in illegal recruiting of players like Kyler.

Kyler did win a Heisman in college after a sick year under Lincoln Riley, but who hasn’t done that these days?

This may be fairly subjective in analysis, but it’s one I’m pretty confident in it. I have a relative who played (started) on one of Kyler’s previous teams. This relative never says anything bad about anyone, ever. But he doesn’t have anything nice to say about Kyler. That’s enough for me.

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Washington +7 = LOCK

Give me the +275 money line too

NFL Lock of the Week: Washington +7 at Arizona

Is Cam a Beast Again or Does the Dolphins Run D Just Suck?

Wilbanks, , ,

New England rushed a whopping 62% on first down last week. That ranks them first in the league after week 1, with the next closest team being LA Rams at 48%. The Pats had 42 total rushing attempts and just 19 pass attempts (69% running, nice).

This flies in the face of most anal ytic pundits. They claim that failed runs stall drives more often than failed passes, especially when those failed runs come on first down and the defense gets to pin their ears back.

But Belichick puts zero stock in their studies. He doesn’t care, and it usually works out for him. He knows of the two key variables that throws wrenches into the nerd-speak.

One, obviously, is the fact that running well makes it easier to hold leads. Take time off the clock, rest the defense, etc.

The other is the X factor you get when activating a QB as a run threat. Forcing the LBs to key on an extra player and having RB lead blockers will flip the script in trench battles.

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When Cam is healthy, he’s one of those rare QBs that can throw (run?) the analytics playbook off the table. He had 15 rushes for 75 yards compared to 15 total pass completions. He also had double the amount of rushing yards that most anyone else in the game had (Miles Gaskin had the next most with 9/40 for Miami). He looked vintage on Sunday.

Well, kind of vintage. He wasn’t quite as explosive as his 2015 days, and he might have just benefited from the Dolphins horrid rush defense. The Miami Herald put out a fairly hilarious article on this after the game.

The Fins invested hundreds of millions into defense during free agency, but most of that was allocated to secondary and pass rushers. They had 11 draft picks, but only used one on a run defender – Bama DT Raekwon Davis in the 2nd round.

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So was this an opponent-based scheme by Belichick, or is this how the Pats are gonna go all season? We’ll have to wait and see. The upside with Belichick’s brain and Cam’s legs seems limitless, but there is a huge downside – health.

Norv Turner tried to turn the Panthers scheme into more short-passing based and less QB running to protect Cam. But Cam didn’t want to do that, so they stayed the course. The result? Cam got killed.

By the end of Cam’s tenure in Charlotte, he had to be pulled for hail marys, All or Nothing doc footage showed him looking completely fucked, and he was shot putting throws left and right (and up and down) all over the field…

Shoulder = SHOT

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But he’s had some rest now and is 100% fresh. Maybe it holds up for a whole season. If he was on any other team, I might even be cheering for that to happen.

Is Cam a Beast Again or Does the Dolphins Run D Just Suck?

Tulane and the U Can Carry Today’s College Slate Just Fine

Wilbanks, ,

Everyone is whining about the college football slate today, saying it’s boring and there’s only one ranked game etc. First of all, see above. Second of all, that ranked game involves The U. So as far as I’m concerned, today is going to be awesome.

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Tulane -6.5 vs Navy

Two words – triple option. Navy’s got the classic scheme; Tulane’s got the spread. Old school vs new school in football tactics that you’ll never see in the NFL.

Tulane -6.5 is the obvious play here. We’re on the up-and-up and should be in semi contention for the AAC this year. The new QB is a redshirt senior transfer from Southern Miss, Keon Howard. He’s pretty sick.

They struggled for a bit last week at South Alabama, but were lights out the entire 4th quarter in a comeback. It was probably just a case of rust and covid-practice-anxiety, as South Alabama had already played their first game a week earlier.

Speaking of covid-practice-anxiety, Navy had the worst training camp in all of NCAA. They didn’t have any spring or summer workouts, and the practices they managed to have were entirely non-contact.

Last Monday on ESPN, they got murdered 55-3 by the Mormons at BYU. Oof. They’ll get better by end of season, but it’s gonna take some time.

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#17 Miami +1.5 at #18 Louisville

This will be on during the Stanley Cup Finals so it will be intermission watch only for me, but I’m still pretty stoked. It is a quasi play-in game for the ACC championship vs Clemson.

The U has a stout defense as normal under Manny Diaz, but now they have themselves a King at QB. D’eriq King. I wrote about him last year when he was at Houston and saw his last game for the Cougars at Tulane. He’s fucking good.

One of the best Texas high school quarterbacks ever and has done nothing but make plays in the college ranks. Miami is the perfect home for him. For a good read on him, check out ESPN’s compelling feature from preseason.

All of his plays last week vs UAB are here. A little bit of jitters to work out, but very good overall.

Louisville on the other hand I don’t know much about. If they still had Bobby Petrino, I would be scared. But they don’t, so I’m not.

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North Texas +14.5 vs SMU

I wrote about these two Dallas area teams in my week 1 betting picks. I was hyped for both of them going into the season, but SMU eking out a win vs Texas State was unimpressive to say the least. UNT looked good though. Take them with the two touchdowns in points at home.

Tulane and the U Can Carry Today’s College Slate Just Fine

Flashback Friday: Falcons Have Never Recovered From Drew Pearson and the ‘Duel in Dixie’

Wilbanks

Next up for America’s Team this week is the Falcons, but my time on this Earth hasn’t seen any notable games between us.

There was the Chaz Green game a couple years ago when Jason Garrett had no clue what to do without Tyron Smith, but who cares about that.

There was also a pretty close SNF game back in 2012, but it’s not really that interesting. Just your standard run-of-the-mill Romo ‘almost beating but not actually beating a top team’ game.

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Instead, we’re gonna flash back to an era before my time – the 1980 Divisional Round ‘Duel in Dixie’ that my elders rave about to this day.

The reason we’re highlighting this game? Because it was one of the best performances of this man.

Some fucking bullshit. Iconic receiver for the most iconic franchise in the league. You can’t write the history of the NFL without him. FIRST TEAM ALL DECADE!

Ridiculous. Anybody involved in letting this atrocity happen should hang themselves. Fuck the east coast media.

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Anyway, this ‘Duel in Dixie’ must’ve been epic to live through. Danny White led a 14 point 4th quarter comeback to win and advance us to the conference championship.

I know it’s always been easy to mount playoff comebacks against the Falcons, but this one is still damn impressive. Super jealous of my elders who lived in the 80s and enjoyed a full decade with a quarterback who kept his cool in big games.

I’ve seen enough of this one to easily conclude that Danny White is at worst the 3rd best quarterback in Cowboys history.

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Drew Pearson on the other hand – top tier icon. Holy cow he was a beast, especially in clutch time. These may not be his famous Hail Marys, but they were still some pretty damn sweet (and historic) touchdowns. Both came in the final five minutes…

Touchdown #1

Those hands man! Incredible catch.

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Touchdown #2:

What. A. Body. That safety knocked himself out and Pearson didn’t even budge. 

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It’s astonishing that he isn’t in the Hall of Fame. Fortunately, the senior committee has grown tired of the media’s garbage and stepped up to save America’s icon.

Drew Pearson is the only player on the senior nominee list this year and is basically guaranteed a hall of fame bust in 2021. Thank god.

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PS – Too Tall Instincts

The wildest play of this game occurred in the 3-and-out defensive stand that we needed in between those two touchdowns. On 3rd and 3, Ed ‘Too Tall’ Jones jumps offside and takes himself way out of position. 

But it actually put him in perfect position to blow up the lead blocker and get us the ball back. Lucky as hell, but awesome.

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PPS – Danny White Punts

This is Danny White punting. Pretty cool. I wonder if he was skilled enough to handle other special teams duties, like catching and holding a routine field goal to not fuck up the entire season. The world may never know.

Go Cowboys!

Flashback Friday: Falcons Have Never Recovered From Drew Pearson and the ‘Duel in Dixie’