As if the World Series wasn’t already shaping up to be dope as fuck, we now get to gamble on a Mets series price that is… +160?? Ohh my fucking great, loving baseball gods. Thank you so much!!
I advise all of you to bet your entire bank account on it. Literally, every single penny. You can sacrifice to the gods later when you’re loaded as fuck.
Don’t believe me? Allow me to break it down for you…
Bartolo Colon’s Heroics Makes Game 4 a Lock
First off, lets reexamine Colon’s epic performance last night. He didn’t win, but he forced Chris Young to go through half a game’s work before KC could finish the job. That’s going to fuck the Royals in game 4. They’ll need all the luck in the world if they want to beat Matz on Saturday night with a fatigued 36 yr old Chris Young or a, lol, Danny Duffy…
Johnny Cueto Is a Fucking Fraud
Everyone points to that game 5 against Houston as a possible turning point for him, but he was going up against a shellshocked young team and still got put in an early 2-0 hole. The Mets will not be so forgiving…
With tonight and a possible game 7 being a DeGrom-Cueto matchup, I think its safe to say that the Mets are guaranteed to win one of those and that is being very conservative.
Citi Field Swagger = Mets Domination
After tonight, we have three straight games at Citi Field. This bodes much worse for KC than it does for the Mets whenever they have to play at the K. In New York, the Royals are going to lose Morales as their DH. He’s hitting #5 right now, so not only are they losing a key cog in the middle of their lineup, but they’re replacing him with an automatic out.
The Mets, on the other hand, are replacing dog shit Kelly Johnson with a pitcher who will only be slightly worse at the plate (remember, especially with Matz, the Mets rotation is arguably the least shittiest at hitting). That is huge.
So the Mets get big time rule change advantages for games 3-5, and they also have cushy starting pitching matchups, especially in Game 4. Add in the fact that the Mets are fucking awesome at home and you can guarantee they win 2 out of 3 at Citi, and again that is being very conservative.
Ryan Madsen Sucks
Holy shit. Is Ned Yost really going to keep pitching Madsen in the 8th? That’s not gonna turn into a disaster at all… He brought Madsen in last night, once again showing that he fails to realize that there is a difference in regular season and postseason pressure. If he doesn’t move Herrerra into the setup man role, this vaunted KC bullpen could very easily be downgraded to just above average
(btw, Herrerra threw 35 pitches last night and is basically out tonight, so we’re almost guaranteed to see Madsen again unless Cueto can stop pitching like a fucking fraud).
Recent Competition – Not a Good Look KC
I respect that the Royals are clutch, that they’re gamers and they find ways to win. But lets also remember that this team was down to a 1% chance of advancing past the Astros in the ALDS. The Astros are not good. The Blue Jays are very talented, but their mental tenacity is nonexistant, and teams that throw games don’t go to the World Series.
The Mets, on the other hand, blew right through one of the best 1-2 pitching duos in history, and then swept a team that manhandled the Cardinals.
Vegas Odds Don’t Add Up
So lets get this straight… We conservatively estimated three guaranteed wins out of the six possible remaining games. In addition, Vegas is favoring them to win the next four games.
They’re favored tonight at -120. Game 3’s Thor/Ventura matchup will probably be around -150 to the Mets. Game 4 should probably be in the -200s with Matz going up against Young or Duffy. Game 5 is scary because of the thought of Volquez doing one of those Favre/MNF emotional performances, but its Harvey at home and the Mets will still be favorites.
We have three guaranteed wins on our own analysis, and Vegas is looking to favor NY in the next four games, and the Mets are +160 UNDERDOGS right now?? Get the fuck outta here.