#24 Toledo -8 vs Western Michigan

With the exception of one slip-up against Northern Illinois, Toledo has been dominating the MAC this year.  All they need to do is win this morning to clinch a berth in the championship game where they will proceed to pound the shit out of Bowling Green for a second time this year.

Toledo’s biggest strength is their run game, with junior Kareem Hunt and sophomore Terry Swanson averaging over a combined 200 ypg.  Western Michigan’s biggest weakness is run defense, having been shredded for over 200 yards the last five games.  I think Toledo covers but I am more comfortable having them in a tease or on the -330 moneyline.

#15 Navy -2 at #21 Houston

Keenan Reynolds has firmly established himself as the best option QB since Eric Crouch while putting Navy on track for a New Year’s bowl game.  Navy’s only loss was at Notre Dame, and they kept that game close for awhile.  Every other game has been a victory by at least two scores, and they’ve had some good opponents like Memphis, USF, Tulsa, and ECU.

Houston is no slouch themselves.  They have a really good black dual threat QB in Greg Ward Jr.  But their resume consists of eking out (and arguably lucking out) victories against good teams while pounding some of the worst teams in the country like Tulane and UCF.

I already thought Navy was going to win this game, but once I heard that Roger Staubach is attending the game and giving speeches in the Navy locker room, this became a lock for me.

Pitt -7 vs The U

Another game that I’m not too comfortable laying a lot of points with, but I’m confident Pitt pulls through in a tease or moneyline bet.  They are one of the more underrated teams with their only losses coming against national championship contenders (Iowa, UNC, Notre Dame).  Miami’s been better since kicking Al Golden to the curb but they still don’t play very hard and I don’t see them going on the road this late in the season and giving much of an inspired performance.

Nebraska +3 vs #4 Iowa

Iowa is a fraud.  Their schedule has been easy as shit and many of their wins have been flat out depressing to watch.  Nebraska is an underrated squad, especially when QB Tommy Armstrong Jr is healthy.  I’m looking for the home underdog to get the outright upset here.

#20 Washington St +7.5 at Washington

I touched on this game earlier this week and it is sneakily one of the best matchups of the weekend.  The Cougars are getting a ton of points because Luke Falk is not expected to play, but as much as I love Falk, I still see Washington State winning this game without him.  Backup QB Peyton Bender was in a training camp battle with Falk that went down to the wire and he’s looked pretty good in relief.  I expect him to be an adequate replacement against a very young Washington team.

Mike Leach’s squad is good.  They were a last second field goal away from beating Stanford and they throttled Oregon on the road.  I expect them to easily cover and the +250 moneyline is good too.

San Jose St +7.5 vs Boise St

Have you seen Boise State play lately?  No?  Good for you, because they suck.  Their past two weeks have been horrific home losses to New Mexico and Air Force.  I don’t see how they’re laying over a touchdown to anybody on the road right now.

Arkansas -14 vs Mizzou

Missouri is the worst team in the SEC and Arkansas is one of the best.  They steamroll Mizzou just like every other team has this year.

Tulsa -7.5 at Tulane

Tulane alum here…  We fucking suck!  Our coach is about to get fired and our players might play harder for him tonight, but they’re still not good enough.

#19 TCU +2.5 vs #9 Baylor

TCU gets Trevone Boykin back and Baylor is down to their 3rd string qb.  The game is in Fort Worth and the weather is gonna suck, which favors TCU.  Take the points.