Here are today’s tips for putting your bookie one step closer to the poor house…
Reds (+136) at Pirates (-151)
Josh Smith is making his MLB debut for the Reds tonight, and normally that means good betting value as pitchers tend to perform well their first few games while teams are still trying to figure them out. Smith’s minor league performances are supposed to be impressive, with a very low walk rate that should fare well for him as he adjusts to the majors. However, the Reds’ bats have been awful on the road, and I don’t expect that to be any better against Locke tonight. The best line here looks to be Under 8 runs (-125).
Braves (+150) at Nationals (-170)
This is a big series for the Braves. They’ve lost a lot of close games to the Nationals this year in which they’ve given up big leads, including this big comeback that ended up galvanizing the Nats and their play has improved from “sucking” to “playing above average but still inconsistent”. Alex Wood pitches for Atlanta and he’s been really good. Strasburg pitches for Washington in his first game off of injury, and he was garbage before going to the DL anyway. Take the Braves with plus money as well as Over 7.5 runs (-110). You’ll win at least one, probably two.
Phillies (+215) at Yankees (-245)
I think I speak for many people when I say fuck Michael Pineda. His performance last night was a disaster. The Yankees still hung eight and made a game out of it, but still fell short by three and wiped out all our earnings last night. I kind of want to pass on this game, but scared money makes no money. Fade the Phillies on the road trying to win three straight. O’Sullivan pitches for Philly with a putrid 6.75 road ERA. The Phillies are decent against lefties so I expect them to put up runs on CC, but not nearly as much as the Yankees will and not any against the Yankees bullpen in late innings. The pick is New York and Over 9.5 runs (even).
Cardinals (-138) at Marlins (+128)
The Marlins have been good at home lately, so I’m tempted to take them at plus money in this matchup between rookies (Carlos Martinez vs. Jose Urena). But Martinez has been fire this year and the Cards are the best in the majors against righties.
Tigers (-110) at Indians (even)
Great pitching matchup with David Price vs. Danny Salazar. I know yesterday I said the Tigers have been crushing righties lately, but Salazar is no ordinary righty. He and Kluber have been aces 1a and 1b this year keeping the Indians above water and I expect that to continue tonight. Take the Indians and Under 7 runs (-120).
Orioles (+102) at Red Sox (-112)
I know it’s just +102, but I don’t know how the Orioles with Jimenez on the mound could be even the slightest of underdogs against this garbage Red Sox team.
Blue Jays (+143) at Rays (-158)
R.A. Dickey (who used to be good but is now mediocre) vs Chris Archer (who is on pace for the Cy Young). I said yesterday the Rays would win 2/3 in this series. Easy pick tonight with their ace on the mound.
Dodgers (-120) at Cubs (+110)
I told y’all yesterday that the Cubs and their lefty bats at home were a sneaky good pick to upset Clayton Kershaw. Well, the Cubs had rough luck with Wada having to leave in the 3rd, but we still nailed this pick… Tonight, I’m picking Greinke in this revenge game.
Athletics (-134) at Rangers (+124)
Chi Chi Gonzalez has been one of the best pitchers for the Rangers this year, yet somehow he’s an underdog at home against the A’s? Take Texas.
White Sox (-108) at Twins (-102)
Pelfrey has been awesome for the Twins this year, and Samardzija has been awesome for about 1/4 starts and horrible the rest for the White Sox. The Twins are the pick here, but you can hedge by taking Under 8 runs (-120). If the White Sox wins, the under will hit. If the Twins win, you can still win both pretty easily with the horrible offense the White Sox have been rolling out lately.
Diamondbacks (-122) at Rockies (+112)
Chase Anderson has been on fire lately, giving up two runs over 13 innings in his previous two starts. Kyle Kendrick has yet to win at home for Colorado, and I don’t expect that to happen against this surging Arizona lineup full of fly ball hitters. The Diamondbacks will finally get back to .500.
Astros (+110) at Angels (-120)
I said yesterday the Angels only win when Pujols carries their lineup with home runs. Yesterday he hit two homers for three RBIs and they still almost lost. Continue to fade the Angels against the division leaders.
Royals (-118) at Mariners (+108)
Jeremy Guthrie for KC vs. the southpaw Mike Montgomery for Seattle. The Royals have a top five offense against lefties. The Mariners are the worst offense against righties and might be without Nelson Cruz tonight. Kansas City wins and Seattle scores Under 3.5 runs (-125).
Padres (+185) at Giants (-210)
The Giants are the much better team and Bumgarner has been great lately, but Despaigne has the Giants’ number and the price looks appealing in this low scoring game. Padres and Under 6.5 runs (-115).