The first Sunday of NFL season… Do I really need an intro here? Okay I’ll give a quick one just for the hell of it. We went 8-5 in college picks this week and everyone who followed my soccer pick this morning just doubled their paycheck.
The NFL is the hardest sports league to gamble on because oddsmakers spend by far the most time and resources to set up perfect lines. However, its also the most fun league to gamble on, so I gamble heavily on it. The best way to make money is through three team teases, but I also win a lot of straight up bets, so you should still feel safe placing high stakes wagers on these picks…
Bears +7 vs Packers
I know, I know… I fucking know what happened last year in both games… However, last year is over, and Marc Trestman is gone. The 84% of public bettors don’t seem to realize how awful of a head coach Trestman was and that he is no longer coaching the Bears. Instead, they now have arguably a top 5 coach at the helm (yes, I said top 5, and I stand by it because he’s been to two Super Bowls including one with an expansion team and also made the playoffs with Tim fucking Tebow). I also expect the defense to be infinitely less shitty than last year considering the fact that they also brought in a top 3 defensive coordinator.
Despite an overwhelming 84% of public bets on the Packers, the line still moved half a point in favor of the Bears… Do you know what that means? It means all the pro gamblers placed their bets on Chicago, and Vegas bookies are also betting on Chicago themselves by not capping their liability on Green Bay. Let’s side with Vegas today and get a whole touchdown’s worth of points at home.
Chiefs -1 at Texans
The Texans fucking suck. Brian Hoyer? Is that a fucking joke? Last year, their offense was all about Arian Foster, and he can’t play today. The Chiefs are one of the most criminally underrated teams, and probably have the best pass rush in the league with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Their defense is going to suffocate Houston on offense. And now their offense finally has a receiver that’s worth a shit and they’ll easily be able to score enough points to beat Houston.
Jets -3 vs Browns
The Browns have one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, the worst receiving corp in the league, and arguably the worst group of running backs in the league. Are they going to have any offense against Todd Bowles Darelle Revis’s defense? No.
Bills +2.5 at Colts
The Colts are my pick to be the most disappointing team this year. Their GM has done absolutely nothing productive except suck enough in 2011 to get the #1 pick for Andrew Luck. He keeps drafting receivers despite having shit for defense and no offensive line. The Frank Gore and Andre Johnson signings would have been amazing five years ago, but are just confusing in 2015. The Bills have a great home field advantage and are one of the few teams that can consistently make elite QBs struggle (like Aaron Rodgers last year). Take Rex Ryan with the points.
Dolphins -4 at Redskins
This is definitely a trap game that Vegas set up here. It’s also a trap that you should not be scared of.
Panthers -3 at Jaguars
The battle of the 90s expansion teams. Everyone is down on the Panthers this year because of their receiving corp, but I think they will be fine. Cam Newton was really hurt last year and it was night and day how much better they got at the end of the year when he finally got healthy. Now he’s healthy, Jonathan Stewart is fully healthy for the first time in years, and Riverboat Ron is definitely going to have this defense in tip top shape.
Rams +4 at Seahawks
The Rams are going to have a top 5 defense this year no question. Probably a top 3. They also have a quarterback for once. There are some concerns with their young offensive line and their running game with both Mason and Gurley hurt, but they’re still a much stronger team than in years past and they’ve always played the Seahawks tough. I think there’s a 50/50 shot at them winning this game, and getting an extra 4 points at home is a good bet. If you weren’t able to get in on the tease before the Pats game started, Rams +14 is a good replacement.
Edit – afternoon games
Raiders +3 vs Bengals
Titans +3 at Bucs
Chargers -3 vs Lions
Cardinals -2.5 vs Saints
Ravens +4.5 vs Broncos
One thought on “NFL Sunday Week 1 Gambling Locks”
For the afternoon I love the Titans +3 and especially the raiders +3. Those are two teams getting their shit together. The other games I like San Diego -3 and Baltimore +4.5
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