College Football Gambling Locks – Championship Week

greg war jr

Time for one of the best Saturdays in all of sports.  The last chance for easy college gambling money before you do your Christmas shopping.  Do you wanna look like a poor person when your wife and kids open their presents?  Fuck no.  Follow these locks and then go buy some good happiness for your family.

#19 Houston -5 vs #22 Temple

Both teams have been really good this year, but Houston is better.  Tom Herman is one of the best coaches in the country, evidenced not only by  the way Houston is tearing it up in his first year, but also by the way Ohio State’s offense has fallen off without him.  Greg Ward Jr. is one of my favorite black QBs in college and I expect him to shred a Temple defense that is much more vulnerable on the road than they are at home.

Southern Miss +7.5 at Western Kentucky

I gotta warn you…  I haven’t seen jack shit of the Conference USA this year, but these two teams are supposed to be legit.  The research I’ve done this week says they’re both about even but Western Kentucky gets an edge for being at home.  That being said, 7.5 points is too many to lay if a team is evenly matched.

#18 Florida +17 vs #2 Alabama

It’s very possible that Florida doesn’t score a single point in this game, but it’s also just as possible that Alabama doesn’t crack 20 points.  Alabama’s defensive coordinator is prepping for his new job at Georgia right now and their former offensive coordinator is manning the sideline for Florida.

Besides, is Alabama really all that?  They lost to an Ole Miss team that turned out to be a pretty big dud.  They don’t really have any impressive wins on their resume.  Their defense is great and Henry is legit, but they have a QB issue and they’re not as scary as they used to be.  I don’t see this game being a huge blowout.

Air Force +6.5 at San Diego St

This one is really a tossup.  San Diego State is the better team, but they also have to start their 2nd string QB and have some serious injury concerns along the defensive line.  I’ll take the Cadets with the points in a game that could easily end up being close.

#7 Stanford -4.5 vs #20 USC

A lot of people like USC in this game, and I don’t understand that one bit.  They beat UCLA last weekend, but before that they got blown out by Oregon and squeaked out victories against Colorado, Arizona, and Cal.  Stanford did way better against those same opponents.  I get that Clay Helton is a better coach than Sarkisian, but there’s still a lot of work to be done before USC can compete with a team like Stanford.

Oh and this is basically a home game for Stanford, and USC has sucked dick whenever they’ve left LA this year.  Stanford wins easily.  In fact, Stanford at 40:1 odds for the national champion is really good value for a future bet in my opinion.

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#10 North Carolina +5 vs #1 Clemson

Most of the college football blowhards out there think Clemson will run away with this, and I don’t get it.  Their win against Notre Dame was great, but they also got some serious help by a giant fucking monsoon.  Their win against FSU was impressive, but Golson was out and Cook was cobbled.  Most of their other games have not been very impressive.  They’ve let a lot of mediocre teams like Syracuse and NC State stick around with them.

UNC, on the other hand, has been annihilating everything in their path.  Last week, they hung 35 on NC State in the 1st quarter.  Again… 35 fucking points in just the first quarter.  They haven’t played any marquee games yet, which explains why nobody realizes yet just how damn good Marquise Williams and Elijah Wood are, but tonight will serve just fine as a coming out party for them.

Yes, the South Carolina lost sucked and they haven’t deserved good rankings up to this point because of it.  But that was months ago and they’ve recovered.  They had new coaches like Gene Chizik and were still learning schemes and they also had a lot of fluke turnovers in the red zone (3 picks by Williams, and he’s only thrown 5 total since).

Also, Clemson turns the ball over a lot.  They have a negative turnover differential overall and have had multiple turnovers in 8 out of 12 games so far.  UNC has a ball hawking secondary that is one of the tops in the nation in takeaways.

A Tarheels upset would shock a lot of people, but not the people that have actually been paying attention to them (i.e. alums and degenerate gamblers).  Go with the people that have had their heads turned by them lately and take the easy points.  Also, like Stanford, UNC is a good value future bet at 30:1 odds.

#5 Michigan State -3 vs #4 Iowa

It’s been such a cute season for Iowa, but the dream ends tonight when they finally play a good team.  The Spartans are an annoying program, and I don’t think their win against Michigan should count in the eyes of the committee, but they’re still way better than Iowa and they’re gonna win easily.