My biggest regrets over the past two years are not going public with my biggest futures – KC +4500 in 2018, and Baltimore +1700 last year (after Week 7).
Both failed to hit of course, but they ended as Super Bowl favorites the week going in to their last games. They were easily hedgeable and profitable, so I’ve got some skins on the wall in this shit.
(Also had Luka MVP +3800 nbd, would’ve been +6000 if I’d done it a day earlier).
A commonality in both of those picks, besides obviously the young QBs, is top-notch coaching. Andy Reid spent years tipping my teenage Cowboy fan angst to boiling points back in the day, so I’ve always believed in his bonafides. Harbaugh’s resume was already speaking for itself.
A key difference for me in this year’s picks is that I might not even bet them for myself because I hate the teams. I’m gonna be pondering this over the night but it’s TBD.
If you don’t have a conscious though, then by all means follow me.
Washington Football Team +22500
Over 5.5 wins +100
Keep in mind that they do not have to win. They just have to make the (now expanded) playoffs.
They’d have to win 1 out of 200 times for this to be good value, which I think is the case. But they do not have to win 1 out of 200 times for you to make money.
First up is coaching – I’m a big time believer in Ron Rivera. He consistently churned out elite defenses in Carolina without particularly heavy draft or free agency investment. They were almost always division round caliber and had a 15-1 Super Bowl run thrown in the mix.
He got some time off over the winter with an early firing to rejuvenate, and I’m a fan of sabbaticals for long term production.
Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Ryan Kerrigan, and Johnathan Allen. That is by far the best front Rivera’s ever had to work with and you’re high and/or biased if you don’t think that’s a foundation for an elite defense.
Also a key note for defense is Jack Del Rio is the DC. He’s a low key a talented coach who’s managed to make some noise with shitty franchises back in his day.
At quarterback, I’m not as high on Haskins as Mahomes and Lamar obviously, but I don’t think it’s fair to say he sucks like everyone’s assuming these days. He didn’t have a chance at all last year. His talent and ceiling is high enough to at least get a fair chance before judgement.
It also helps Alex Smith will be a key veteran presence in the locker room and Kyle Allen can provide enough competition to suppress potential complacency. At the very least, both can provide a safety net of adequacy if Haskins does end up sucking.
Lastly, we must address the elephant in the room – the owner. I came of age trolling redskins boards and am confident in the fact that nobody knows this owner and these fans better than me.
Dan Snyder is one of the most successful con men to ever live and he may just be entering his prime. There’s a huge misperception out there that the fans have always hated him, and that’s just not the case.
Out of the gates in his first offseason, he spent boatloads of money on legends Deion Sanders, Bruce Smith, and Mark Carrier to dupe the fans into thinking they had their new Jerry Jones (irony at its best).
He emptied the vault to sign that era’s version of Chip Kelly (but actually good version) – Steve Spurrier. He also maxed out on assistant coach contracts to get a discombobulated all star staff that further duped fans.
When that fizzled out, he brought back the Hall of Fame hero Joe Gibbs. Redskins fans were so excited; their owner could bring back Gibbs but ours burned the bridge with Jimmy (forgetting the fact we had Parcells).
The Joe Gibbs team actually could’ve been good enough to win in spite of Snyder. That was his best shot at conning his way into immortality. Unfortunately, Sean Taylor died and everything kind of fell apart.
By then, Snyder had gotten rich enough to stop caring as much about the fans and that’s when the cycle of bottoming out began.
However, that bottoming out was not as consistent and permanent as people believe. Whenever Snyder got to the point of revolution from the fans, he always managed a way to snake em back in for a bit.
Mike Shanahan, Scot McCloughan, and remember this? Hahahahahah ahhh haha that’s so good.
Right now, Dan Snyder is under more attack than he’s ever been, but I don’t think it’s enough to cancel him. The owners will let him stick around as long as he’s bringing in the cash, and now we’re about to see an up-cycle where he does just that.
While I hate the redskins so much, I just might pull the trigger on this one just to cheer for Snyder to keep his post. It’s for the good of the Cowboys.
Carolina Panthers +15000
Over 5.5 Wins -120
Again, coaching is key here with the Panthers. Matt Rhule was suspiciously the most sought after coach for the past two years. He killed it at Temple and worked a miracle at Baylor; although that doesn’t seem like an NFL resume, the many pursuits he’s had by teams indicates there may be something special there.
These are some serious green flags…
He‘s coached every position except secondary and running back (but has also been a run game coordinator). It’s a resume of someone who may not have shot up the leader, but has so much experience on the ground in all the sectors to end up the most knowledgeable candidate for a job.
However, these are some serious red flags…
Ethics are an issue. This bothers me, but it doesn’t bother everyone so I’m just throwing it out there in case you care.
The head coach isn’t the only prodigy on the staff. In fact, they might have the greatest coaching prodigy of them all – Joe Brady.
Seriously, has there ever been a 30 year old with this much god damn credentials? Groomed by Sean Payton for two years and then goes to LSU for one season and managed by far the greatest college offense of all time. He is special.
Lastly, we have quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who for some reason is kind of polarizing. I just don’t get it. He had a freak injury and that sucks, but both before and after he’s done nothing but win.
His last two years in college: 11-2 and 12-1 records. His last year in New Orleans: 5-0. Overall record including Minnesota: 22-12.
A good comp for him is Chad Pennington. He’s smart, quick, accurate, and is dependable for everything but scrambling and throwing a lot of deep balls. At minimum, he’s never going to suck.
With the god guru calling his plays and the god running back in his backfield, he has more than enough skills to keep on winning.
Oh and the division is hard yes, but only because of New Orleans. Tampa is this year’s Browns because Brady right now is not better than Jameis. I don’t care to argue about it at the moment, but you’ll see.
Other bets to consider:
Brian Flores Coach of the Year +2500 – for many reasons both on and off the field
Rams +6000 – definitely worth a look, too much money and talent to have a bottom barrel price
Cowboys +1400 – we’re so fucking stacked
Saints +1150 – already the most talented team in the NFL and that’s before Jameis comes in. Currently fact checking Jameis 1of1 and it’s all checking out so far.
Chiefs +500 – let’s be real they’re probably a dynasty