Champions League Gambling Lock: Bayern vs Barca

Both of the games so far have been awesome even though my picks have sucked. That will partially continue today – this matchup is the best of the entire tournament and will probably decide the champion, while the theory of third time’s a charm means I’m probably due for a win.

I’ll be dead honest in saying that Bayern looks like the best team in the world right now and is stacked from top to bottom, but with the odds in place I have to go with Barca. People are sleeping on them because they sleepwalked through La Liga restart and choked away the title, but I have a feeling they’ll take Champions League a bit more seriously…

On paper, Barcelona’s starting XI can be the best in the world on any given day. Don’t forget that last year, they had a commanding 3-0 lead on Liverpool after the first legs of the semis. Yes that Liverpool. Lack of depth and focus keeps leading to occasional fuckups at Barca, and that’s why they haven’t won Europe in a whopping five years now.

This year is different though. Single elimination changes everything and Barca are built perfect for it. They can put goals in the net no matter what the format is, but single games help out a defense that needs to contain a team for only 90 minutes instead of 180. It’s also advantage to older teams.

Is Messi in form?

Yes. I think he is in quite good form. This is the year we finally put to rest the tired argument of Messi vs Ronaldo. Love both of them to death, but Messi is the goat and it’s not even close. Give me the dude who singlehandedly carried Argentina to the World Cup final over the dude who won a Euro Cup from the sidelines. Give me the dude who just pulled off that wonder goal vs Napoli over the dude who just got bounced by Lyon.

Give me half units on Barca ML (+242) and Barca to advance (+160) on top of the previously posted full unit future on Barca to win Champions League (+800).

Champions League Gambling Lock: Bayern vs Barca

Champions League Gambling Lock: Atalanta vs PSG

Champions league quarterfinals start today, and it’s single elimination format which is incredible. God we are truly in sports candy land right now. These games are way too cool and important to not gamble on, so I’m posting my locks here daily for each game. You’re welcome!

I advise two futures of one unit each – Barcelona +800 and Atletico +850. The Spanish teams are looking good. Atletico has the easy side of the bracket while Barca has Messi in a single elimination format. Give me those odds and hopefully one or both make the finals to lock in profit.

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Wednesday: Atalanta vs PSG

I’m going one unit on Atalanta +.5 (-127), one unit on over 3 (+113), and 1/4 unit on draw (+267).

Atalanta is the story of the season. Their first round home match against Valencia was basically the reason for Italy’s covid disaster in the same way that a 49ers Super Bowl parade would’ve crippled Santa Clara. However, unlike the Californians, the Italian Atalanta fans probably find this all worth it.

Atalanta, not to be confused with our own Atlanta, was basically unheard of until started getting Europa berths a few years ago. This year, specifically in the year 2020, they’ve taken off like a rocket and scored a fuck ton of goals. They go 3-4-3 and don’t care about defense, and it doesn’t matter because their offense is setting records. Basically a three goal per game average in 2020.

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PSG on the other side is basically all about Neymar. They have tons of other talent on the roster, but not necessarily on the field right now. Veratti is injured. Di Maria is suspended. Mbappe is supposedly healthy enough to play but will surely be crippled. It all comes down to whether Neymar can play like the talisman he’s paid to be.

Neymar’s had one of the most enigmatic careers of any athlete in the world. The Economist’s writeup on the geopolitical implications of his PSG transfer is easily the coolest sports article I’ve ever read. At the time of that article, Neymar’s resume boasted a magical 2014 World Cup run and some club titles from riding Messi’s jock. Since that time, he’s had a terrible 2018 World Cup, a ton of injuries, and nothing of import accomplished at PSG.

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I’m fading Neymar and riding Atalanta, but the talent discrepancy is real so I’m not overly confident. If Atalanta does go down, the game might get crazy and we’ll have the over.

Champions League Gambling Lock: Atalanta vs PSG