Here is the bet: parlay of Mets and Astros division futures.
The Mets are at -500 to win the NL East with a 5.5 game lead on the Nats that they will definitely hold. Their trio of aces remain on fire and now their offense can actually hit now. In addition, the Nats are continuing to blow games against mediocre teams like San Diego and Colorado (partially because crybaby Drew Storen still has his head up his ass).
The Astros are at -250 to win the AL West with a 4.5 and 5.5 game lead on the Rangers and Angels. After beating Zach Grienke and Clayton Kershaw in consecutive games over the weekend, it looks like they will also definitely hold their lead. They’re playing the top teams in the league and refusing to drop any games, and they’re also gonna get Springer back soon. Also, if you’ve read my baseball picks before, you know how worthless I think the Angels are (no great pitchers, two good hitters with nothing else of significant in the lineup). As for the Rangers, I’m a diehard fan and love their story this year, but there’s in no chance in hell I could expect their garbage ass bullpen and all the overachieving rookies in their lineup to hold up for another month.
While I think both teams have a definite 100% chance to win their divisions, the stat geeks at Baseball Prospectus put both of them at 86%. With those odds, a parlay of these two bets would have a 74% chance in winning. With a payout of .68:1, the ROI of doing this bet a million times over would be 24.32%. That is insane. There are some bets in sports that can give you a 24% expected return, but almost never do you see one with this high of a chance of winning (unless you were also following me for the Chile Copa America pick).
This is a bet we cannot pass up on. Bet the fucking farm on it and enjoy your huge bankroll for football season.